Collegiate Cup RJCC

Junior Women's Saber

Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 1:30 PM

Liontree Arena (RIMAC) @ UC San Diego - La Jolla, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SCHMIDT Isabel	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	13%
2	HUANG Madeline	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
3	YAM Danika	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	3%
3	HUAI Delilah	-	-	4%	15%	32%	35%	15%
5	TSE Angelina	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	23%
6	DANG Kelia	-	1%	8%	23%	35%	26%	7%
7	LO Chloe	3%	16%	33%	33%	14%	2%
8	RAMIREZ Mirka A.	-	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	20%
9	ZHANG XUANYI	-	-	2%	12%	39%	47%
10	NGUYEN Siena	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
11	WILSON Eva	2%	10%	27%	33%	21%	7%	1%
12	BROCK Sydney	1%	15%	35%	33%	14%	2%
13	ZHAI Amy	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
14	HITOMI Nadya	1%	5%	19%	32%	29%	12%	2%
15	GAUTAM Sahana	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	9%
16	CHEN Elaine	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
17	GOLOVITSER Maya	-	1%	7%	23%	37%	26%	6%
18	YAO Rainie	-	-	4%	18%	35%	31%	10%
19	LOMOTAN Addison	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	4%	-
20	GRULICH Rayaana	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
21	HU Michelle	2%	17%	36%	32%	12%	2%
21	LIU Sydney	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
23	IYER Arushi	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
24	LIU Hannah	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
25	HAN Emma	21%	44%	27%	6%	1%	-
26	STONE Coral	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
27	LIN Annika	5%	25%	41%	23%	5%	-
28	DUDNICK Morgan	6%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
29	JEFFORDS Sophia	13%	33%	33%	17%	4%	1%	-
30	LI Sonia	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	5%	-
31	WANG Peijia	13%	33%	33%	16%	4%	1%	-
32	LI Ying Chu	1%	7%	22%	33%	26%	10%	1%
33	CHAN Jolene	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
34	LI Angela	-	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
35	LEE Irene	15%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-
36	LIN Abbey	29%	45%	21%	4%	-	-
37	LIN Yeeann	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-	-
38	SAAD Alia	61%	32%	6%	1%	-	-
39	JENSEN Katrina	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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