Wasatch Fencing RYC/ROC

Div I-A Men's Épée

Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 12:00 PM

Wasatch Fencing Club - Kaysville, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BOYCE Samuel H.	-	-	2%	13%	40%	45%
2	BRISLAWN Reilly R.	-	-	4%	31%	65%
3	HANSEN Zachary	-	-	2%	25%	72%
3	CARRIER Gabriel A.	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
5	WESTPHAL David R.	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
6	SUVOROV Yuly	-	5%	43%	46%	6%
7	DELISLE Jonas P.	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
8	GIOVAGNOLI Nolan	1%	10%	33%	38%	16%	2%
9	MADSEN Jr Eric W.	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
10	MACK Jason A.	9%	36%	41%	13%	1%
11	CHU Ian	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
12	KRAVETZ Benjamin (Ben) D.	-	6%	44%	44%	7%
13	EVERETT Taiger	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
14	DAO Alexander	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-
15	PERKINS-OLLILA Justin W.	-	3%	16%	37%	35%	10%
16	YU Austin	12%	40%	36%	10%	1%
17	CHEATHAM Edward	1%	10%	32%	37%	17%	2%
18	MERRIAM Isaiah G.	1%	10%	35%	44%	10%
19	JONES Dominic R.	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	2%
20	DANIELS Jonah	16%	43%	31%	9%	1%	-
21	MUNOZ Humberto	1%	10%	28%	37%	21%	4%
22	STORKEL Adam	22%	64%	14%	1%	-
23	COHEN Joshua	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
24	ALI Adam	14%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
25	MALLON Jaxson	22%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-
26	HU Robert J.	25%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
27	CHAKRABORTY Zorian	39%	44%	15%	2%	-
28	GRAVIS Martin V.	69%	29%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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