Mission SYC 2023

Y-12 Men's Épée

Friday, May 5, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NAKAS Levent	-	-	-	-	1%	18%	81%
2	TSE Maxwell	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	14%
3	VYSOTSKIY Evan	-	4%	20%	38%	29%	8%
3	MIDYANY Evan	-	-	1%	13%	45%	40%
5	SINGLETON Aman	-	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
6	LIU Adam	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
7	KIM Henry	1%	8%	23%	33%	25%	9%	1%
8	LIN ZIJIE	1%	9%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
9	LUO Alexander	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
10	YAKHNIS Seth	-	-	5%	19%	37%	30%	8%
11	TESFAYE Elias	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	8%	1%
12	SHCHUR Grayson	-	-	4%	22%	49%	25%
13	DODIN Daniel M.	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
14	NOOL Alexander	1%	10%	34%	40%	14%	1%
15	TRAN Spencer	-	3%	20%	39%	30%	8%
16	WU Matthew	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	-
17	HERNDON Liam	-	-	1%	6%	22%	41%	30%
18	ARMSTRONG Payson	-	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
19	AHMED Mohsen	21%	49%	25%	5%	-	-
20	GIORDANO Zach	7%	35%	39%	16%	3%	-
21	CRESPO Nathaniel Justus	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%	-
22	YOON Jonathan	12%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-	-
23	GRIGORENKO Gleb E.	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	6%	-
24	SONG Aidan	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	3%
25	YUE Bryan	3%	22%	42%	27%	5%	-
26	FOGEL Jake	18%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-
27	CHEN Daniel	2%	16%	37%	32%	11%	1%
28	LEE Harrison	-	1%	6%	23%	40%	28%	2%
29	DANILOV Artur	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
30	KHERSONSKY Robert	-	1%	8%	25%	37%	24%	5%
31	VALLINA Finn	13%	40%	33%	11%	2%	-	-
32	ZHOU Zhi Matthew	16%	36%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
33	ZHAI Junqi	-	2%	16%	37%	34%	11%
34	LIU Pan Iok	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
35	CHEN Edward	26%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-	-
36	FEIMER Ben	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
37	WHITE Jackson	47%	42%	10%	1%	-	-
38	LIU George Yikyen	37%	45%	16%	2%	-	-
39	CHEN vincent	2%	25%	40%	25%	7%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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