Mission SYC 2023

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, May 7, 2023 at 1:45 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DODIN David	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	69%
2	LIU Adam	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
3	ATKINS Levi H.	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
3	TRULL A.J.	-	1%	7%	34%	59%
5	ZAYDMAN Ethan	-	-	-	1%	7%	36%	56%
6	TSE Maxwell	-	-	1%	9%	32%	45%	13%
7	KUGLER Luke	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
8	HERNDON Liam	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	23%
9	SAVORETTI Pietro	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	12%
10	DOUBOV Andrew	1%	12%	37%	40%	9%
11	BAJAJ Nakul	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	-
12	STAUDINGER Enzo	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%	1%
13	AHMED Mohsen	20%	43%	29%	7%	-
14	LIU Jeremiah W.	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	1%
15	MANGAN Hunter	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
16	KARIMOV Amir	9%	34%	40%	15%	1%
17	XIE Brandon	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
18	LIU Ethan	5%	29%	40%	21%	5%	-
19	RADZIKOWSKI Sam	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
20	SINGLETON Aman	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
21	ZOGRAFOS Nicholas	2%	15%	37%	34%	11%	1%
22	LYCHKO Maksym	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
23	ANDERSON-SONG Jude	2%	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%
24	TRAN Spencer	1%	10%	30%	36%	19%	3%
25	NILSEN Mark	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
26	XIA Dashan	-	-	4%	21%	45%	30%
27	SUN Ethan	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
28	OTTAVIANO Aaron	23%	44%	27%	6%	-
29	NOOL Alexander	25%	41%	26%	7%	1%	-
30	OCONNOR Paul	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-
31	CHEN Jayden	2%	12%	31%	34%	17%	4%	-
32	ROSIELLO Francesco	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
33	HELMY Richard	12%	38%	34%	13%	2%	-
34	KIM Henry	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%
35	TESFAYE Elias	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	1%	-
36	KLINKENBERG Patrick	32%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
37	GRIGORENKO Gleb E.	11%	32%	36%	17%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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