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May 2023 Challenge Cup

Mixed Épée

Saturday, May 20, 2023 at 9:00 AM

Louisville, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4
1	NEMETH Arthur	-	-	1%	32%	67%
2	BIESIADA Jan	6%	29%	42%	20%	2%
3	KENT Matthew	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	JOHNSON Eli	6%	34%	42%	16%	2%
5	MARTIN Dirk	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
6	TURNER Joshua	1%	9%	31%	42%	18%
7	TRAN John	1%	9%	38%	50%	2%
8	MOLDOVEANU Roman	17%	43%	33%	7%	-
9	TURNER Jackson	1%	12%	35%	38%	14%
10	FLANDERS Genevieve	23%	42%	27%	7%	-
11	TRAN Emmanuel (Nino)	1%	12%	38%	39%	10%
12	ADAMS Crawford	20%	40%	29%	9%	1%
13	XU Kaylee	2%	20%	41%	30%	7%
14	MATHEIS Grace	13%	39%	35%	12%	1%
15	DEPP Edward	5%	25%	40%	26%	4%
16	MCNARY Sean	25%	47%	25%	3%	-
17	CLEMMER-BECHT Elise	18%	42%	32%	8%	-
18	BIESIADA Sophia	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%
19	KEATING Richard	4%	19%	37%	31%	10%
20	HAWS Clara	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.