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Div III Men's Foil

Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Worcester Fencing Club - Worcester, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHENG Ethan	-	-	-	6%	36%	58%
2	WANG Rory	-	1%	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
3	ZHAO Brandon	-	1%	8%	27%	39%	21%	4%
3	GE Daniel	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
5	CUTLER Andrew	-	-	1%	5%	20%	42%	33%
6	LOZADA Gabriel G.	-	-	6%	34%	48%	12%
7	FENG Michael	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	22%
8	CHUA Kirby	-	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
9	SURESH Rohan	-	4%	16%	34%	32%	13%	1%
10	RIPA Joseph K.	-	3%	18%	44%	29%	6%
11	DJONOUMA Toyohm	-	1%	7%	30%	45%	18%
12	GREENLEAF Paul	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
13	BISHOP Henry	-	2%	12%	28%	34%	20%	4%
14	CANEDO James	-	10%	31%	37%	19%	3%
15	KONDOR James	-	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
16	ZHENG Harrison	-	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
17	PETINO Leonardo	4%	28%	45%	20%	3%	-
18	LAO Kevin	-	1%	13%	47%	33%	5%
19	TAM Kyle	1%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%
20	WEINTROUB Ezra	4%	18%	33%	29%	13%	3%	-
21	SFINTESCU Alex	5%	23%	35%	26%	10%	2%	-
22	MARSHALL Henry	37%	46%	15%	2%	-	-	-
23	ATEFI Daniel	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
24	BOUSSY Luciano	-	-	2%	15%	44%	40%
25	DEROSA Patrick	15%	42%	35%	7%	-	-
26	URISMAN Jacob	3%	20%	39%	27%	9%	1%	-
27	STAFFORD Gareth	16%	35%	31%	14%	3%	-	-
28	LAI Aaron	15%	44%	32%	8%	1%	-
29	O'CONNOR Aidan	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	1%
30	TIBBETTS Justin	-	3%	18%	38%	30%	9%	1%
31	THOMPSON Samuel	6%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
32	CUTLER Thomas Scott	21%	47%	28%	4%	-	-
33	LIU Stanley	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
34	MCENTEE Owen	2%	17%	40%	30%	9%	1%	-
35	KROLEWSKI Alexander	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	3%
36	IREZ Connor	27%	46%	24%	3%	-	-
37	XU Brian	20%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
38	COHEN Maxwell	77%	20%	2%	-	-	-
39	SANCHEZ-HERNANDEZ Alex	47%	41%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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