2023 OFC Pre Summer Nationals

Div III Mixed Épée

Saturday, June 24, 2023 at 4:00 PM

OLYMPIC FENCERS CLUB - Johns Creek, GA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KUCIA Michael J.	-	2%	17%	46%	36%
2	RIGGINS Joshua	-	1%	6%	19%	34%	30%	11%
3	MOON Seojung	-	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
3	SHAFRITZ Noah	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
5	SARSOUR Ghaleb	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	8%
6	HWANG Brandon	1%	6%	21%	35%	28%	9%	1%
7	CHOI David	-	1%	7%	22%	37%	27%	6%
8	ATON Dave	-	7%	34%	44%	15%
9	BARCLAY Khyri	-	1%	9%	24%	35%	24%	6%
10	ZHANG Eric	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
11	HONG Robin	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
12	SRAMBIKKAL Pranav	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
12	CHOI Adam	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
14	NGUYEN Hubert	-	6%	36%	44%	14%
15	DAVIDENKO Alexander	-	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%
16	HONG Ryan	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
17	JOO Jeremy	1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1%
18	LU Chang	49%	45%	6%	-	-
19	KWON Jason	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
20	ARZT Nicholas	1%	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
21	LIU Jacob	-	4%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
21	KIM Minsung	1%	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
23	ROCKWELL Nolan	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
24	KIM Sangone	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
25	LEE Sean	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
26	DOTY Matthew	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
27	KIM Theodore	29%	51%	18%	2%	-
28	FAN Yuchen	2%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
29	BEVILACQUA Jacob	31%	41%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
30	BRITTON Kiera	19%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-	-
31	LI Ryan	14%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
33	OH Tony	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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