National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div I-A Men's Saber

Monday, July 3, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 MICLAUS Justin - - 1% 6% 23% 42% 28%
2 NOBLE Colin - 2% 11% 27% 34% 21% 5%
3 BARNETT Adam - - 2% 13% 39% 46%
3 LINDHOLM Oliver S. - - 6% 22% 37% 28% 8%
5 PATIL Aaryan A. - 4% 15% 30% 31% 17% 4%
6 MICHELL Bailey - - 1% 8% 26% 41% 24%
7 FENG Leo - - 1% 7% 24% 41% 27%
8 LE Hayden - 1% 4% 17% 33% 33% 13%
9 GREENBAUM Maxwell H. - - 3% 16% 41% 39%
10 STATEN-LUSTY Silas J. - - 1% 6% 23% 42% 29%
11 KILARI Krish - 3% 13% 27% 32% 20% 5%
12 DEPEW Spencer - 4% 23% 37% 26% 9% 1%
13 ROHRLACK Charles (Charlie) F. - - - 2% 27% 71%
14 BOSITA Carson 9% 30% 37% 19% 4% -
15 SHAHZAD Azlan A. - 3% 13% 29% 33% 18% 3%
16 BYON Adrian - 4% 16% 30% 31% 16% 3%
17 XU William - - 1% 6% 22% 41% 30%
18 HEINTZ Evin Y. - - 1% 12% 67% 20%
19 PAN Alex - - 4% 16% 35% 33% 11%
20 HOLMES Aiden G. - 1% 6% 22% 36% 28% 8%
21 CHAVES Matthew J. - 3% 13% 28% 33% 19% 4%
22 YUN Jake - 1% 4% 15% 32% 34% 14%
23 PRIEST Leighton K. - - 1% 7% 33% 59%
24 GUFFEY Christopher 1% 9% 29% 38% 20% 3%
25 KIM Andrew H. - - 2% 10% 30% 39% 19%
26 DENG Andrew - - 2% 11% 29% 39% 19%
27 SKINNER Graham B. - 2% 12% 29% 34% 19% 4%
28 WONG Ryan - 2% 12% 27% 34% 20% 5%
29 OH Triton - 5% 19% 33% 29% 12% 2%
30 LOPEZ Lucas M. 2% 15% 32% 31% 15% 4% -
31 BYON Julian 10% 31% 35% 18% 5% 1% -
32 GLOZMAN Justin - 2% 13% 32% 34% 17% 3%
33 ZHOU Miles 1% 10% 27% 34% 21% 6% 1%
34 KOTOV Leonid - 1% 8% 23% 34% 26% 8%
35 LUO George F. - 2% 9% 23% 34% 25% 7%
36 HUANG Ethan F. - - 3% 12% 30% 37% 18%
37 BULL Anderson - - 3% 13% 31% 37% 16%
38 BARTOLO Domenic V. - - 4% 19% 42% 34%
39 RAMANAN Jaisimh 2% 15% 32% 32% 15% 3% -
40 ZHANG Derek - 3% 13% 28% 32% 19% 4%
41 REYES Xavier M. - - 5% 19% 36% 31% 9%
42 STAMIS Kyle 3% 15% 32% 32% 15% 3% -
43 COLE Alexander 2% 14% 31% 32% 17% 4% -
44 BABAYEV Gabriel A. - - 2% 10% 28% 39% 21%
45 YOUNG Nash - - 4% 15% 32% 34% 14%
46 AKS Ari 2% 12% 28% 32% 19% 6% 1%
46 KUMAR Sachit 2% 10% 26% 33% 21% 7% 1%
48 BAUER Hank E. - 2% 12% 31% 35% 17% 3%
49 ROE Finnegan 2% 12% 27% 32% 20% 6% 1%
50 LIN Daniel - 4% 17% 36% 33% 9%
51 CHEEMA Hyder 12% 36% 37% 14% 1% -
52 RIGGINS Littleton K. 2% 15% 35% 33% 13% 2%
53 GAO Albert 1% 9% 28% 38% 21% 3%
54 WESLER Logan A. 1% 6% 23% 38% 26% 6%
55 HONG Rubin 2% 14% 35% 35% 14% 1%
56 CHEN Evan P. 1% 5% 20% 34% 29% 11% 1%
57 POSY Daniel 4% 18% 32% 29% 14% 4% -
58 EDELMAN Seth A. 2% 10% 25% 32% 22% 8% 1%
59 YANG Ziyi - - 4% 16% 34% 34% 11%
60 ZHAO Zhiyu 9% 29% 35% 20% 6% 1%
61 SAVOY Luca 5% 26% 38% 24% 6% 1%
62 FORMENTI Giulio 13% 38% 36% 12% 1% -
63 YEN Preston 1% 6% 21% 34% 27% 10% 1%
64 WEBER Mattias A. 5% 25% 39% 25% 6% -
65 BONSELL Vance 2% 14% 31% 33% 17% 3%
66 HONG Steven - 1% 6% 20% 34% 30% 10%
67 CHEONG Heonjae - 5% 22% 40% 29% 5%
68 HUANG Alexander C. 5% 21% 35% 27% 10% 1%
69 LIN Maxim 1% 8% 26% 35% 22% 6% 1%
70 SAHAY Kenji 1% 5% 19% 33% 28% 11% 2%
71 MONTALVO Emmeric 15% 34% 31% 15% 4% 1% -
71 PIWOWAR Alex 2% 12% 29% 33% 18% 5% -
73 THORNHILL Kwasi 1% 7% 22% 34% 26% 9% 1%
74 DOLAN Charles R. 1% 7% 21% 32% 26% 11% 2%
75 WONG James T. 7% 25% 34% 23% 9% 2% -
76 DESSAUER Tobyn M. 3% 16% 32% 31% 15% 3% -
77 HUANG Zekai 2% 13% 31% 33% 17% 4% -
78 RAMANAN Govind 2% 10% 26% 32% 22% 7% 1%
79 MEDVEDEV Michail D. 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
80 GRATHWOL-SEAR Oliver 3% 21% 39% 29% 8% 1%
81 RASMUSSEN Alexzander C. 1% 5% 19% 35% 30% 10%
82 KIM ELIJAH 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
83 KALPATHY Rohit - 4% 15% 29% 31% 17% 4%
84 GINSBERG Jordan 1% 8% 26% 36% 23% 7% 1%
85 YANG Dylan 1% 7% 21% 32% 26% 11% 2%
85 ZHU Charlie 11% 30% 34% 19% 6% 1% -
87 FALLICK Ozzie - 1% 7% 22% 36% 27% 7%
88 MORALES Jonathan - 1% 10% 29% 36% 20% 4%
88 MIYASAKI-CASTRO Masanobu - 2% 10% 26% 34% 22% 6%
90 ZHANG Ethan W. 2% 14% 31% 32% 16% 4% -
90 MCCARTHY Devan 7% 24% 34% 24% 9% 2% -
92 CHEONG Heonjun - 3% 13% 28% 32% 19% 4%
93 SCHERER Max - 4% 16% 32% 31% 15% 3%
94 KANG evan R. 2% 12% 27% 32% 20% 6% 1%
95 CHUNG Connor 1% 10% 25% 33% 22% 8% 1%
96 FREYRE DE ANDRADE Elian R. - 2% 11% 26% 33% 22% 6%
97 VO Minh Q. - 5% 18% 33% 30% 13% 2%
98 LO Bradley 11% 31% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
99 MCCARTHY Gabriel 1% 8% 26% 38% 24% 4%
100 FIELDS Matthew S. 3% 17% 36% 31% 11% 1%
101 KIM Kendrick 35% 42% 19% 4% - -
102 CRAIG Samuel 7% 30% 41% 20% 2% -
103 MAY Griffin M. 4% 20% 37% 29% 9% 1%
104 DALAL Rohan 15% 37% 33% 13% 2% -
105 ZHOU Aeres Z. 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 7% 1%
106 PATEL Rayn 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
107 BEITEL Noah - 3% 13% 30% 34% 17% 3%
108 WANG William 51% 37% 11% 2% - - -
109 HAO Anwen 7% 25% 34% 23% 8% 2% -
109 GOLDIN Lucca 6% 22% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
111 CAISSE Simon B. 3% 15% 31% 30% 16% 4% -
111 COVINGTON Max G. - 4% 15% 29% 31% 17% 4%
111 XU Andrew - 4% 15% 30% 31% 16% 3%
114 BROU Inkosi 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 5% 1%
115 HOTHA Nikhil 17% 35% 30% 14% 3% - -
116 LIU Mingyang Ryan 2% 14% 29% 31% 18% 5% 1%
117 CHENG Hong 8% 28% 35% 22% 7% 1% -
118 DUDNICK Christian 11% 32% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
119 YAN Leonard Z. 25% 41% 25% 8% 1% - -
120 ZHOU William 20% 50% 24% 5% 1% - -
121 GAUVEY Kieran 18% 37% 30% 12% 2% - -
122 LAU Justin Y. 8% 27% 35% 22% 7% 1%
123 NOURELDIN Gabriel 5% 24% 38% 25% 7% 1%
124 GREENBAUM Ian L. - 2% 10% 25% 33% 22% 6%
125 STONE Esmond A. - 2% 11% 26% 34% 21% 5%
126 MUNGUIA Nathan 6% 22% 34% 26% 10% 2% -
127 TIAGI Daniel 10% 31% 35% 18% 5% 1% -
127 WILKINSON James 41% 40% 16% 3% - - -
129 ZHAO Lucas 11% 31% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
130 FENKER William M. - 3% 15% 31% 32% 16% 3%
131 YOU Jaden 2% 13% 29% 31% 18% 5% 1%
132 KROON Lucas 1% 9% 26% 34% 22% 7% 1%
133 HUANG Tom 1% 5% 17% 31% 29% 14% 3%
134 RAMTEKKAR Soham 15% 36% 32% 14% 3% - -
134 KO Zuriel 19% 41% 29% 9% 1% - -
136 PI Alexander < 1% 5% 18% 34% 31% 11%
137 KAKEHI Nicholas B. 4% 18% 34% 29% 12% 2% -
138 CUNNINGHAM-SNELSON Aahil 24% 39% 26% 9% 2% - -
139 SHANKAR Karthik 46% 40% 12% 2% - -
140 HUSTON Theodore 27% 43% 23% 6% 1% - -
141 WALKE Devin 43% 40% 14% 2% - -
141 YAN Kevin 12% 34% 35% 16% 3% -
143 BRIDGEMAN Andrew T. 13% 35% 33% 15% 3% - -
144 ZHOU James Y. 28% 42% 23% 6% 1% - -
144 BOUKHTIN Maxim 16% 36% 31% 14% 3% - -
146 VENU Ram 14% 35% 33% 15% 3% - -
147 LEE Noah 16% 40% 34% 10% - -
148 HENDERSON Jack 50% 41% 9% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.