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Cascade Clash SYC

Y-10 Women's Épée

Friday, August 25, 2023 at 4:30 PM

Northwest Fencing Center - Tigard, OR, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	WU Jessica	100%	100%	98%	86%	49%	7%
2	VIJAY Vaishnavi	100%	100%	95%	69%	24%
3	CAYETANO Audrey	100%	100%	92%	58%	16%
3	XIONG Alice	100%	73%	31%	7%	1%	-
5	DU Chloe	100%	97%	80%	44%	13%	2%
6	XU Chenyu	100%	100%	99%	90%	62%	22%
7	YU Chloe	100%	97%	81%	46%	12%
8	OLELE Ifechi	100%	97%	79%	44%	13%	1%
9	KOU Cynthia	100%	98%	84%	49%	13%
10	ZHAO Ellie	100%	98%	85%	54%	20%	3%
11	QIAO Lori-Ann	100%	100%	95%	76%	40%	9%
12	CHEN Madeline	100%	87%	43%	10%	1%
13	SUN Milly	100%	90%	57%	21%	3%
14	LI Anna	100%	99%	93%	71%	34%	7%
15	LI Allison	100%	82%	43%	12%	1%
16	BERESTOVITSKY Eva	100%	92%	64%	27%	6%	1%
17	JIANG Ziqing	100%	100%	98%	84%	46%	10%
18	JIANG Ziqi	100%	100%	91%	57%	15%
19	YOUN Davina	100%	39%	5%	-	-
20	DU Chelsea	100%	91%	57%	19%	3%	-
21	CHON SUBIN	100%	96%	74%	35%	7%
22	YANG Nina	100%	75%	35%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.