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Cadet Men's Foil

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Boston Fencing Club - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	57%
2	LI Eric	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	69%
3	PO Oliver	-	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
3	LI Aaron	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
5	ELWOOD Sebastian F.	-	-	1%	9%	42%	48%
6	YAO Bradley	-	-	1%	9%	36%	45%	9%
7	XU Xinhao ( Sonny)	-	1%	11%	37%	41%	10%
8	LIU Derek	-	-	3%	21%	51%	24%
9	KLOTZ Isaiah	-	-	3%	17%	42%	38%
10	TAN Aidan	-	1%	10%	30%	41%	18%
11	WANG Mason	-	-	2%	15%	44%	38%
12	KONG Luculentus X.	2%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
13	SHAO Eric	-	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	5%
14	XU Ethan	1%	12%	36%	39%	11%	1%
15	AKYAMAC Bora	-	1%	7%	27%	45%	20%
16	SURESH Rohan	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%	-
17	WANG Rory	-	2%	16%	39%	32%	9%	1%
18	FENG Michael	3%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
19	CHENG Ethan	1%	6%	23%	38%	27%	6%
20	LI Ayren	-	6%	34%	41%	16%	2%
21	CHENG Logan	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
22	LAO Kevin	4%	22%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
23	BAKSHI Aman	3%	18%	37%	32%	9%	1%	-
24	CHEN Hanson	-	2%	12%	32%	36%	16%	2%
25	YANG Dylan	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
26	HARRA Alexander	15%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
27	SUN Ryan	5%	25%	43%	23%	4%	-
28	JIMENEZ Naveen	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
29	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	5%	25%	38%	24%	6%	1%
29	HOU Gaven	8%	29%	38%	21%	4%	-
31	REN Ryan	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
32	BHAN Amar	39%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
33	TANG Terry	-	5%	30%	44%	20%	2%
34	BAI Brian	18%	44%	30%	7%	-	-
35	ZHAO Brian	11%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
36	TIBBETTS Justin	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-	-
37	TJON Calum	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
38	HOLLIS Sean	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
39	TAM Kyle	26%	54%	18%	2%	-	-
40	SABATINO Patrick	4%	21%	38%	28%	8%	-	-
41	STAFFORD Gareth	53%	41%	6%	-	-	-
42	ABRAMKIN Tim	15%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-	-
43	GAO Andrew	15%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
44	RIPA Joseph K.	34%	45%	19%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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