11th Annual Little Musketeers RYC / RCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 4:00 PM

Jump Beyond Sports - Torrance, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LI Howard	-	-	-	-	-	5%	95%
2	XIAO Brayden	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	25%
3	YANG Phillip	-	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
3	GREENSTEIN Viktor	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
5	ARISTOV Ilya	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
6	LUC Cedric	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	22%	1%
7	BURRES kenneth	-	-	4%	24%	48%	24%
8	ZHANG KAIQI	-	3%	15%	37%	36%	9%
9	LEE Nathan Uju	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
10	WANG Edward	1%	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
11	KOZLOFF Wyatt	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
12	HWANG Hagan	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
13	GUO Youwei	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
14	OU Rigel	1%	6%	24%	38%	26%	6%
15	CHIANG Tyson	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%	-
16	LI Ryan	7%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-
17	YUEN Caleb	-	3%	14%	32%	36%	15%
18	CHEN Aaron	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%	-
19	IM Tyler	-	-	3%	16%	37%	36%	8%
20	DENG Richard	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	6%	1%
21	LEE Jayden	7%	32%	41%	17%	3%	-
22	YUAN Alan	3%	20%	38%	29%	9%	1%
23	KIM Suin	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%	-
24	KIM Junseong	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	1%
25	CHOW Tyson J.	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
26	CHEUNG Evan	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-	-
27	QI Zach	9%	37%	39%	14%	2%	-
28	LEE Bill King	11%	37%	36%	14%	2%	-
29	BELHE Hridhaan	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%	-
30	LIANG Preston	2%	13%	35%	36%	13%	1%
31	WANG David	1%	7%	29%	43%	18%	2%
32	GUO Jonathan	4%	19%	36%	29%	11%	1%	-
33	EKAMBARAM Rithik	6%	26%	38%	24%	7%	1%
34	TENG Lucas	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-
35	FU BRANDEN	2%	15%	35%	33%	14%	2%
36	SLOAN Ethan	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-
37	LEE Matthew	49%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-
38	LIN Ethan	1%	14%	34%	33%	14%	3%	-
38	GONZALEZ Paul	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
40	GRIFFIN Sid	5%	24%	38%	25%	8%	1%	-
41	BRADIC Andreja	33%	43%	20%	4%	-	-
42	WU Kaiden	2%	27%	40%	24%	6%	1%
43	CHAN Troy	44%	42%	13%	2%	-	-
44	HSIEH Maxwell	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
45	WILD Gray	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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