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Foothills Fall Fight 2023

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, September 9, 2023 at 11:00 AM

The Simpsonville Activity Center - Piedmont, SC, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CLICK Aiden	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
2	MURRAY-GRAMLICH Robert	-	2%	17%	44%	34%	2%
3	RACHEL Dylan	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	16%
3	CLICK Tristan	-	6%	23%	38%	26%	6%
5	BUI Henry	-	1%	5%	21%	40%	30%	4%
6	WALLACE James	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
7	PAL Ian K.	3%	21%	41%	27%	7%	1%
8	HAMILTON David F.	-	-	3%	21%	46%	25%	4%
9	POBIS Chandler R.	-	-	-	2%	15%	50%	33%
10	GLENNON Sebastian J.	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	17%
11	OLIVERIUS Joseph W.	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
12	MALLOY Patrick G.	-	-	-	4%	24%	45%	26%
13	MANN Justin	-	5%	26%	43%	21%	3%	-
14	CHEKH Vladimir	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%	1%
15	MILLER Jonathan	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
16	VILLANI Henry M.	-	-	1%	11%	39%	48%
17	RIGGINS Joshua	-	17%	39%	32%	11%	1%
18	SAKO Ayrton J.	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
19	CAMPBELL Eva	6%	28%	38%	21%	5%	1%	-
20	PULLEN Ayah	6%	23%	34%	26%	10%	2%	-
21	SNYDER Ari	-	2%	14%	37%	35%	11%
22	BIRT David (Dave) L.	-	6%	28%	40%	22%	4%
23	ZIMINSKY Karel M.	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%
24	JAAFAR Hamza	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%	-
25	SMALLWOOD Jaylon	-	1%	12%	51%	32%	4%	-
26	PAYNE John T.	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
27	KRIEGER Jack	-	13%	38%	34%	12%	1%
28	SHAFRITZ Noah	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
29	COLLIER Baiden C.	4%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%
30	KREISER Alexander	2%	30%	42%	21%	5%	-
31	MACAUDA Mark M.	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	-
32	STILLMUNKES Rylan	-	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	1%
33	FERRARO Nicholas	29%	43%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
34	MACLEOD Zion	3%	26%	46%	22%	4%	-
35	HERRICK Kerry K.	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
36	MEIER Nicholas M.	3%	26%	40%	24%	7%	1%	-
37	CATES Georgia	2%	20%	45%	29%	4%	-	-
38	LEVERETT Corrina	59%	35%	6%	-	-	-	-
39	ARZT Nicholas	7%	28%	39%	21%	5%	-	-
40	COUSINS Patrick	34%	50%	14%	1%	-	-	-
41	RUOFF Elliott	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
42	GEISSLER Maximilian	7%	35%	38%	16%	3%	-
43	SNYDER Kathryn	72%	25%	2%	-	-	-
44	GUTHRIE Jennifer	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-
45	HICKS Matthew	3%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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