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Div II Mixed Épée

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PAL Ian K.	-	4%	22%	39%	28%	7%
2	DUBE Ian D.	-	-	1%	9%	47%	43%
3	SNYDER Ari	-	4%	21%	42%	30%	3%
3	KREISER Alexander	1%	17%	41%	32%	8%	-
5	BIRT David (Dave) L.	-	-	-	1%	17%	46%	35%
6	WALLACE James	-	-	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
7	HAMILTON David F.	-	-	1%	12%	51%	36%
8	SAKO Ayrton J.	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	15%
9	RACHEL Dylan	-	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	13%
10	VILLANI Henry M.	-	-	2%	15%	50%	33%
11	SHAFRITZ Noah	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	21%
12	COLLIER Baiden C.	3%	18%	39%	30%	9%	1%
13	CHEKH Vladimir	1%	7%	27%	40%	22%	3%
14	HUESKE David B.	-	-	4%	20%	43%	32%
15	PULLEN Ayah	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
16	KRIEGER Jack	2%	19%	43%	29%	7%	-
17	RIGGINS Joshua	-	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
18	POBIS Chandler R.	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
19	PAYNE John T.	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	26%	6%
20	SMALLWOOD Jaylon	-	5%	25%	43%	24%	3%
21	FAN Yuchen	5%	24%	42%	26%	3%	-
22	HERRICK Kerry K.	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
23	ZIMINSKY Karel M.	-	2%	19%	44%	32%	3%
24	JOSEPH Matthew	-	-	1%	12%	41%	37%	10%
25	VON CLEF Claire	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
26	MILLER Jonathan	9%	40%	37%	12%	2%	-
27	GUTHRIE Jennifer	42%	45%	13%	1%	-	-
28	MANN Justin	-	5%	24%	43%	24%	3%
29	MACLEOD Zion	1%	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
30	MEIER Nicholas M.	22%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-
31	FERRARO Nicholas	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
32	SNYDER Kathryn	46%	49%	5%	-	-	-
33	ARZT Nicholas	-	7%	30%	42%	18%	2%
34	GABEL Dorotea	-	5%	27%	42%	23%	4%	-
35	WHITEHEAD Christopher	-	10%	46%	40%	4%	-	-
36	LEVERETT Corrina	25%	60%	14%	1%	-	-	-
37	BRUNELLI Alessandra	8%	29%	36%	21%	5%	-
38	CATES Georgia	17%	41%	32%	9%	1%	-
39	HALL Isabelle	15%	34%	31%	15%	4%	-	-
40	ENGLEHARDT Albert F.	-	6%	25%	43%	22%	4%	-
41	GEISSLER Maximilian	7%	30%	41%	20%	2%	-
42	MOY Eva	43%	46%	10%	1%	-	-	-
43	GRANGER Sara	4%	21%	37%	28%	9%	1%
43	HICKS Matthew	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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