NJFA RYC / RJCC

Y-12 Men's Épée

Sunday, September 17, 2023 at 8:00 AM

SportsPlex at Metuchen - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	CHEN Jayden	-	1%	8%	34%	47%	11%
2	SINGLETON Aman	-	-	2%	12%	39%	48%
3	NOOL Alexander	-	-	5%	23%	43%	29%
3	WHITE Jackson	5%	26%	40%	23%	5%	-
5	TSIEN Richard	10%	33%	37%	17%	3%	< 1%
6	LUO Alexander	-	1%	7%	24%	42%	27%
7	HONG Ethen	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	3%
8	SHAPIRO Samuel	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	8%
9	ZHAI Junqi	-	-	-	4%	33%	63%
10	YU David	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
11	CAFASSO Alexander	-	-	4%	25%	54%	16%
12	MADRIGAL SALVAT Guillermo	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
13	MASKIN Mikhail	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	9%
14	TOPRANI Valmik	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
15	NG Nico	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
16	WANG Marcus	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
17	ARMSTRONG Payson	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	5%
18	CHEN Tianjun	12%	39%	35%	12%	2%	-
19	FRIZZELL Kai	1%	10%	29%	38%	20%	2%
20	GROVER Aditya	27%	42%	24%	6%	1%	-
21	ZHANG Shuhao	26%	45%	23%	5%	-	-
22	CHO Adrian	7%	29%	40%	21%	3%	-
23	THOMASCH Vincent	-	1%	8%	28%	43%	20%
24	YU George	13%	37%	34%	14%	2%	-
25	YAO Irvine	13%	38%	36%	12%	1%	-
26	ZHAO Brandon	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-
27	LEE Ryan	2%	15%	36%	32%	12%	2%
28	CAVALLARO Sebastian	7%	30%	37%	20%	5%	-
29	CHEN vincent	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
30	CAMPBELL Alexander	25%	44%	25%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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