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Neil Lazar RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Women's Saber

Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 11:00 AM

Floyd Little Athletic Center - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GONZALEZ Veronika	-	-	1%	5%	23%	44%	28%
2	CASTELO Soleil	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	22%
3	FOSS Persephone	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	14%
3	MEYERSON Michelle	-	-	4%	21%	45%	29%
5	PARK Haylie	-	1%	5%	23%	40%	26%	6%
6	GONG Joy	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
7	FUNG Iris	-	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	20%
8	CHOI Charlotte	-	3%	13%	29%	34%	18%	3%
9	LEOU Korina	-	-	-	-	5%	29%	66%
10	WANG JiaQi	-	-	-	4%	19%	41%	36%
11	NIU Jessica	-	-	3%	13%	31%	36%	17%
12	XU Elaine	1%	11%	27%	33%	21%	6%	1%
13	HILD Anya	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
14	CHOWDHERY Myra	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%	1%
15	LEE Kaitlin	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%	1%
16	KIM Grace	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
17	OSMINKINA-JONES Kai	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	3%
18	YERENKOVA Ameliia	-	3%	14%	30%	33%	17%	3%
19	SEO Kaitlyn	1%	11%	34%	37%	15%	2%
20	MAK Jayden	3%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%
21	CHAU Zoey	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	11%	1%
22	GALLAGHER Isabella	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
23	KATZ Emma	-	2%	12%	28%	33%	20%	5%
24	PEREIRA Izumi	6%	26%	37%	24%	7%	1%	-
25	ZONG Eliane	-	4%	20%	38%	28%	9%	1%
26	ALMEDA Galina	1%	9%	25%	34%	23%	7%	1%
27	WANG Keira	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
28	STOLCKE Saskia	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	1%	-
29	MOTOVA Masha	46%	40%	12%	2%	-	-
30	SMITH Genevieve	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-	-
31	YOUNG Sienna	1%	5%	18%	32%	29%	13%	2%
32	MAGITSKY Giadora	7%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%	-
33	GOLEN Grace	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
34	NEGROIU Mara	27%	40%	24%	8%	1%	-	-
35	SPIESS Linnea	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	2%	-
36	BALLOU-AARES Kaia	4%	24%	39%	25%	7%	1%	-
37	LEE Elise	18%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
38	LAU Angela	8%	36%	38%	15%	2%	-
39	SAGER Bianca	11%	37%	37%	14%	2%	-	-
40	MCCARTHY Nora Louisa Abrous	7%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
41	BAO Amelia	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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