Air Force ROC (DV1A, DV2, VET) & RJCC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Saturday, September 30, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Air Force Cadet Field House - Air Force Academy, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WATRALL Christina	-	-	-	-	1%	15%	84%
2	WANG Zoe	-	2%	15%	41%	38%	4%
3	MCCLAIN-YU Eri M.	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
3	RATZLAFF Jocelyn T.	-	-	-	1%	17%	82%
5	KIM Elizabeth Y.	-	-	1%	10%	39%	49%
6	KANESHIGE Christina Y.	-	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
7	CAREY Michele S.	-	1%	8%	29%	41%	21%	1%
8	KENT Elizabeth J.	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
9	SYKES Elynor	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
10	ZHU Riley	9%	35%	38%	15%	3%	-	-
11	LIN Victoria T.	9%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-
12	PROKOP Jeannine A.	-	4%	21%	43%	27%	5%
13	FREEMAN Katherine	17%	39%	31%	10%	1%	-
14	OPIELA Natalie	8%	33%	41%	17%	2%	-
15	PEARSON Heila	-	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
16	CHATIKHINE Anastasia	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
17	LAI Amanda	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
18	WANG Victoria	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%	1%
19	ZHANG ANGELA	8%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
20	HANEY Kimberly M.	6%	25%	38%	25%	6%	-
21	FRENCH Phaelen	-	2%	12%	34%	37%	14%	1%
22	NAROTZKY Emma	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	6%	-
23	JAMES Ashley	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
24	CHANG chaehee	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-	-
25	SHADE nadine	11%	37%	37%	13%	1%	-
26	CHEN Alicia	8%	30%	38%	19%	3%	-
27	DEBLAERE Caecie M.	2%	16%	37%	33%	11%	1%
27	LLOYD Melanie	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%
29	OPERARIO Abigail Z.	-	6%	27%	44%	21%	1%
30	RALSTON Katherine	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-
31	NICKOLOV Nora	30%	42%	22%	6%	1%	-
32	NOLLNER Jennifer R.	6%	28%	40%	21%	5%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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