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Div II Men's Épée

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SINHA Zaan	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
2	GIOVAGNOLI Nolan	-	1%	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
3	KENT V David	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
3	WU Alistair	-	1%	9%	32%	42%	15%
5	HARR Carver	-	-	1%	6%	25%	44%	24%
6	DANIELS Jonah	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
7	WIEGAND-SHAHANI Braden M.	-	2%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
8	MERRIAM Isaiah G.	-	-	1%	8%	29%	43%	19%
9	MCADOO Declan	-	-	1%	8%	37%	55%
10	SPITLER Ansel	-	3%	20%	41%	30%	6%
11	MILEY Walker	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
12	NOFZIGER Bennett	4%	21%	39%	28%	8%	1%
13	CUMMINGS Kai	-	-	-	4%	20%	46%	30%
14	LOMIO Nicholas A.	1%	9%	32%	38%	17%	3%	-
15	SHULL Marc	-	1%	7%	27%	40%	21%	4%
16	FERRELL-CARRETEY Elliot	1%	7%	23%	35%	25%	9%	1%
17	STENCEL Andrew E.	-	-	-	3%	20%	44%	32%
18	EYMAN Hans	-	2%	13%	30%	33%	17%	3%
19	HEADRICK Jack	1%	7%	30%	39%	19%	4%	-
20	MALLON Jaxson	1%	9%	30%	39%	18%	3%
21	MARQUEZ Jeremy	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%	1%
21	HERRON Jonathan	11%	33%	35%	16%	4%	-	-
23	LEE DoWon	1%	7%	24%	35%	24%	8%	1%
24	HENSLEY Roran	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
25	CHENG Trevor	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
26	SUN Neo	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
27	MILLER Mason	30%	53%	15%	2%	-	-
28	WACHS Bryce	51%	43%	6%	-	-	-
29	SIM Ian	-	4%	29%	44%	21%	2%
30	ZANKOWSKI Brendan	14%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-	-
31	WILSON Trevor	4%	21%	35%	28%	10%	2%	-
32	MCDONALD Connor	-	2%	23%	44%	26%	4%
33	KENT IV David	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	26%	6%
34	EMERSON Zachary	41%	44%	13%	1%	-	-	-
35	ANDERSON Donald	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
36	BALDWIN Alexander	20%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
37	GEISLER Grahm	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
38	REID Wesley	24%	48%	23%	4%	-	-	-
39	FREGGER Alex	40%	43%	14%	2%	-	-	-
40	HAALAND Josef	10%	30%	36%	19%	4%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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