Ben Gutenberg Memorial SYC / RCC

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, October 1, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Golisano Training Center at Nazareth University - Rochester, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	MI Aileen	-	-	-	-	5%	30%	65%
2	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	3%	16%	41%	40%
3	WANG Yudi	-	6%	26%	45%	21%	3%
3	WANG Joanna	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
5	TSIMIKLIS Aphrodite	-	9%	32%	39%	18%	2%
6	PEVZNER Nicole	-	1%	11%	36%	39%	13%
7	WANG Sabrina	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
8	HARRIS Julia	-	2%	10%	28%	38%	20%	2%
9	DONG Angela	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
10	LIU Enjia sherry	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
11	SONG Jenna	1%	7%	24%	36%	24%	7%	-
12	MCFARLANE Asha	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
13	JOO Natalie	1%	7%	24%	36%	25%	7%
14	LIU Jingyi (Eva)	1%	12%	35%	37%	15%	2%
15	TRACZ Calleigh D.	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
16	SHENG Katherine	-	7%	29%	40%	20%	3%
17	SAKALLA Serene	-	1%	7%	28%	44%	20%
18	BING Charlotte	-	2%	11%	29%	37%	19%	2%
19	LIN Yunong	3%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
20	PAN Yiran	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-	-
21	LUO Victoria	-	7%	28%	42%	20%	3%
22	FENG Audrey	1%	10%	28%	37%	21%	4%
23	KATS Ekaterina	19%	44%	29%	8%	1%	-
24	SONG Erin	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-
25	LYON Claire	42%	43%	13%	2%	-	-
26	XIA Mary-Jane	3%	18%	38%	31%	10%	1%
27	HANNAH Abigail	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
28	BURGESS Logan	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
29	YU Eliza	7%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%
30	XIE Ling	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-
31	DU Siqi	66%	30%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.