Event Results
AAFA: Harry Rulnick OpenSurprise Map
Green wins and red losses stand out more as the result becomes less expected.
| # | Name | Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome | Pool Victories | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pool | DE | Exp. | Act. | Diff. | ||
| 1 | OWENS Elise | V D V V V V | V V V V | 4.3 | 5 | +0.7 |
| 2 | HARWOOD Gray | V V D D V D | V V V D | 3.2 | 3 | -0.2 |
| 3 | PRUT Anton | V V V V V V | V V D | 3.0 | 6 | +3.0 |
| 3 | TAMIR Esu | V D V V V V | V V D | 4.1 | 5 | +0.9 |
| 5 | GUEVARRA Gabriel (Gabe) W. | V V V V V V | V D | 4.3 | 6 | +1.7 |
| 6 | SHMUKLER Maria | V V D V V V | V D | 5.1 | 5 | -0.1 |
| 7 | KAPLAN Abe | D V V D V V | V D | 3.6 | 4 | +0.4 |
| 8 | CANTERO GIGNAC Alexander | V D V D V D | V D | 2.8 | 3 | +0.2 |
| 9 | CULLITON Colton | V V V V V D | D | 2.8 | 5 | +2.2 |
| 10 | IFORD Andrew W. | V V V D V D | D | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
| 11 | CANADY Isaac | D V V V D V | D | 3.5 | 4 | +0.5 |
| 12 | GUEVARRA Isabelle C. | D V D V V D | V D | 4.4 | 3 | -1.4 |
| 13 | ODEA Ryan | D V D D V V | V D | 2.2 | 3 | +0.8 |
| 14 | LEAKE Arlo | D D V V D D | V D | 2.4 | 2 | -0.4 |
| 15 | GREENE Max | D D D V D V | V D | 3.2 | 2 | -1.2 |
| 16 | KUBE Lily | D D V D D D | V D | 0.7 | 1 | +0.3 |
| 17 | MORKOS Elinor | D V D D D D | D | 1.2 | 1 | -0.2 |
| 18 | BARROW Jonathon | D D D D D V | D | 1.5 | 1 | -0.5 |
| 19 | CHAPMAN Avery | D D D D D D | D | 3.2 | 0 | -3.2 |
| 20 | SIERS David M. | D D D D D D | D | 1.8 | 0 | -1.8 |
| 21 | PETERS Ezra | D D D D D D | D | 1.2 | 0 | -1.2 |
| Color | Outcome | Difficulty | Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victory | Very Hard | 0% to 20% | |
| Victory | Hard | 20% to 40% | |
| Victory | Roughly Even | 40% to 60% | |
| Victory | Easy | 60% to 80% | |
| Victory | Very Easy | 80% to 100% | |
| Defeat | Very Hard | 0% to 20% | |
| Defeat | Hard | 20% to 40% | |
| Defeat | Roughly Even | 40% to 60% | |
| Defeat | Easy | 60% to 80% | |
| Defeat | Very Easy | 80% to 100% |