The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

Take Action

AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Div I-A Women's Foil

Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 3:00 PM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RANDOLPH Piper	-	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	24%
2	LEE Ji Ahn	-	-	2%	13%	31%	37%	17%
3	KONG Chin-Yi	-	-	-	-	1%	19%	79%
3	DENG Melissa	-	1%	12%	35%	37%	14%	1%
5	GEBALA Gabrielle Grace A.	-	-	-	-	1%	17%	81%
6	GOOR Viviene E.	-	-	5%	23%	48%	24%
7	XIE Su	2%	18%	42%	31%	7%	-	-
8	ZHANG Eunice	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
9	KIM Rachel	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	16%
10	FUNG Vera	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	23%
11	OH Ceana	-	4%	17%	33%	30%	13%	2%
12	LAI Sophia	-	-	1%	8%	36%	50%	7%
13	GUAN Adeline	-	5%	30%	41%	21%	4%	-
14	FUNG Emma	-	-	4%	19%	38%	31%	9%
15	LUO Sandra J.	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
16	LI Sophia M.	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	14%
17	GRANHOLM Carolyn N.	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
18	CHANG Elizabeth	-	3%	16%	36%	32%	12%	2%
19	WELBORN Calissa	2%	15%	37%	35%	10%	1%
20	MU Allison	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	2%
21	BHATT Morgane	-	-	2%	13%	44%	41%
22	YUEN Elsie	31%	43%	21%	5%	-	-
23	CASTANEDA Keira	-	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
24	SAIFEE Lamya	-	-	5%	25%	48%	20%	1%
25	KO Claire	-	-	6%	26%	42%	24%	2%
26	SUN Emily	-	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
27	SUN Chien-Yu	1%	10%	29%	37%	20%	4%
28	HOBSON Ava	5%	26%	38%	24%	7%	1%
29	CUI alivia	1%	8%	33%	41%	15%	2%	-
30	RAO Sonia D.	-	1%	14%	36%	36%	12%	1%
31	PENG Charlotte	11%	38%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
32	ZHENG Zoe	26%	43%	24%	5%	-	-
33	LUH Mia P.	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
34	ZULUETA Catherine	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
35	BEAVER Ava	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
36	LENK Sophie	4%	24%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-
37	BALCE Cyril	13%	46%	33%	8%	1%	-	-
38	TROXEL Sylvie A.	5%	24%	38%	25%	7%	1%
39	FONG Ellis	34%	51%	13%	1%	-	-	-
40	SEN Arjen	67%	28%	5%	-	-	-	-
41	CHANG Janelle	46%	47%	7%	-	-	-	-
42	BOLES Amanda X.	9%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
43	PATTERSON Natalia	43%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
44	GOEL Riyana	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-	-
45	KAPPAGODA Manel	2%	22%	37%	27%	10%	2%	-
46	LIU Jessica	55%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.