The 9-State Fencing Cup RYC/RCC

Y-12 Women's Foil

Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 1:30 PM

Chelsea Piers - Stamford, CT - Stamford, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TANG Melody Fujiao	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	63%
2	CAI Ilana	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
3	JOO Natalie	-	-	-	1%	6%	33%	61%
3	KRAHE Annika	-	-	3%	14%	35%	37%	11%
5	WANG Joanna	-	-	-	-	6%	32%	61%
6	LI Savannah	-	1%	6%	21%	39%	29%	5%
7	WANG Amabel	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	40%
8	BING Charlotte	-	-	-	6%	38%	55%
9	DE CASTRO Kai	-	1%	8%	30%	48%	12%	1%
10	SHIN Elizabeth	-	1%	7%	26%	42%	22%	2%
11	LIN Yunong	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
12	LIU Yino	-	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
13	YOUM Amelia	11%	35%	37%	15%	1%	-
14	OTTAVIANO Maris	3%	18%	37%	30%	11%	1%	-
15	CAO Amelie	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	5%	-
16	YIN Chloe	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
17	ORRINGER Lottie	-	-	3%	19%	54%	23%
18	ZHANG Zoey	1%	7%	26%	37%	23%	6%	-
19	BAULIN Zoya	2%	13%	32%	35%	16%	3%	-
20	AGUIAR Leala	-	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
21	ORBÉ-AUSTIN Maya	2%	16%	36%	31%	12%	2%	-
22	PAEK Mila	5%	32%	41%	18%	3%	-	-
23	HAFEZ Sahar	-	-	3%	17%	41%	34%	5%
24	BO Iris	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
25	LI Christina	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
26	JI Dora YuanDao	7%	28%	40%	22%	3%	-
27	LEO Jenna	9%	39%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
28	ZHU Ella	9%	33%	39%	17%	2%	-	-
29	MACKINTOSH Quinn	1%	10%	30%	36%	18%	4%	-
30	GE Deanna	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	7%	-
31	SHANG Arianna	8%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
32	LIANG Jasmine	5%	27%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-
33	LI Doreen	7%	29%	40%	21%	3%	-
34	DONG Katelyn	44%	41%	13%	2%	-	-	-
35	PARK Eloisa	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%	1%
36	LAU Victoria	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-	-
37	HUDSON Sophie	45%	40%	13%	2%	-	-	-
38	WU Annie	22%	42%	28%	7%	-	-
39	BALMER Zoe	49%	38%	11%	2%	-	-	-
40	SPEZAKIS Hypatia	1%	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
41	WEI Heidi	1%	10%	37%	40%	12%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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