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Y-14 Men's Saber

Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 3:30 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YE Ivan	-	-	1%	5%	20%	42%	33%
2	WANG Justin	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
3	GONG Gavin	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
3	BALU Aedan	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	7%
5	HALL Noah	-	2%	14%	44%	39%
6	LIU Aaron	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
7	HUCHWAJDA Alex	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
8	HENRY Cadel	-	6%	27%	46%	20%
9	XU Ivan	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
10	GUREVICH Benjamin	-	-	3%	16%	43%	38%
11	SLAVNOV Anton	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
12	VALENCIA Jose	-	2%	12%	37%	38%	11%
13	KURILO Michael	-	1%	10%	31%	42%	16%
14	HU Harry	-	2%	12%	35%	38%	13%
15	BREUER Daniel	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	15%	1%
16	BENE Andrew	13%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-
17	KIM Samuel	-	2%	11%	30%	37%	18%	1%
18	MEHTA Yash	2%	13%	32%	34%	17%	3%
19	BADMUS Joshua	1%	13%	35%	36%	13%	2%
20	LIU Jayden	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%
21	FENG Brendan	1%	6%	23%	36%	26%	7%	-
22	LIU Ethan	15%	41%	35%	9%	1%
23	PAUL James	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
24	GUAN Adam	2%	14%	31%	33%	17%	3%
25	KANE Kiran	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
26	YAO Zachary	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
27	CHAWLA Abhishek	7%	28%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
28	HUANG Ziyi	13%	40%	35%	10%	1%
29	HOWERTON Beckett	24%	44%	26%	6%	-
30	WANG Tim	10%	34%	37%	15%	3%	-
31	BARRY Dave	6%	27%	40%	22%	5%	-
32	BENE Paul	15%	37%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
33	XU Princeton	22%	39%	28%	9%	2%	-
34	THEUNISSE Oliver	14%	34%	33%	15%	4%	-	-
35	WELLMAN Jack	2%	23%	41%	26%	7%	1%
36	YANG Justin	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
37	LIAO Sirui	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
37	OTT William	50%	39%	10%	1%	-	-
39	BRAMLETT Myer	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
40	QIN toby	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
41	LEMERY Marc	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
42	LEE Ezra	31%	45%	20%	3%	-	-
43	JAVIER Xavier	1%	10%	27%	35%	21%	5%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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