AFM Youth and Cadet Cup - Event #1

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, November 5, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Academy of Fencing Masters - Sunnyvale - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ROBINSON Samuel	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
2	CLAES Thomas	-	-	1%	6%	23%	41%	29%
3	LOUIE Joseph	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
3	GACIOCH Noah	-	4%	18%	37%	31%	9%
5	GUO Woody	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	25%
6	REICHMANN Theo	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
7	WANG Devin	1%	6%	22%	35%	27%	9%	1%
8	DENG Andes	24%	43%	26%	6%	1%	-
9	DILEEP Roshan	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
10	KOFMAN David	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	16%
11	MANA Sameer	-	6%	25%	42%	26%	2%
12	LI Sean	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-
13	CHEW Aedan	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
14	MANA Arnav	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	18%
15	SU Samuel	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%
16	WANG Adrian	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
17	DING Max	-	5%	22%	39%	28%	5%
18	LIN Jason	1%	11%	30%	36%	18%	3%
19	JAMES Kaden	4%	22%	38%	28%	8%	-
19	BALUCAN Caelus	1%	10%	30%	38%	19%	3%
21	BUENAVENTURA Camden	1%	7%	26%	39%	22%	4%
22	GUO Luke	17%	42%	31%	9%	1%	-
23	LIN Daniel	29%	43%	23%	5%	-	-
24	WONG Vansen	10%	29%	34%	20%	6%	1%	-
25	WLOKA Erik	27%	43%	23%	6%	1%	-
26	LIU Max	23%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
27	REYES Landon	2%	15%	36%	34%	12%	1%
28	LIU Xuyao	17%	40%	31%	11%	2%	-
29	MALDONADO Brandon	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
30	BAUMAN Colin	4%	21%	35%	28%	11%	2%	-
31	CHEN Evan	1%	21%	49%	25%	4%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.