Duel at Dallas Div1A/2/Vet ROC

Div I-A Men's Foil

Saturday, November 18, 2023 at 11:30 AM

Fencing Institute of Texas, Inc. - Carrollton, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SONG Aiden S.	-	-	-	1%	27%	71%
2	DESHMUKH Arjun	-	-	2%	17%	44%	37%
3	LEWIS Paul D.	-	-	-	1%	19%	79%
3	DORAN Wesley C.	-	-	-	8%	41%	51%
5	GRIFFIN John O.	-	-	-	1%	22%	77%
6	KIM Brian	1%	14%	43%	36%	5%	-
7	REYES Omar	-	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%
8	TAN Christien	-	1%	9%	36%	47%	7%
9	KIM Adrian	2%	17%	40%	34%	8%	-
10	ANDRIC Borna	-	1%	19%	64%	15%	1%
11	PARKER Isaiah	7%	31%	42%	18%	2%	-
12	RUFFNER Blake W.	-	-	1%	15%	65%	19%
13	POPOKH Leo	-	1%	10%	35%	41%	14%
14	MORA Johan	2%	17%	38%	33%	10%	1%
15	LONG Quinton R.	-	-	3%	23%	60%	14%
16	CHENG Mason	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-
17	JOHNSON Chance	4%	44%	38%	12%	2%	-
18	BARRETT Austin	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
19	GÓMEZ CRUZ Francisco Javier	-	6%	25%	41%	25%	3%
20	SANCHEZ Emanuel	2%	17%	43%	33%	5%	-
21	CHEN Kelton	3%	28%	55%	13%	-	-
22	DAI Christopher	22%	47%	26%	5%	-	-
23	LIU Michael H.	-	7%	31%	40%	19%	3%
24	MCKEE Calvin	45%	43%	11%	1%	-	-
25	SENISCH Isaac	20%	48%	27%	5%	-	-
26	CARPENTER Demetrius	5%	24%	40%	26%	5%	-
27	GODFREY Christopher	6%	63%	28%	2%	-	-
28	CHAN Kyle Si Tin	10%	31%	36%	19%	4%	-
29	MCCOY Camden	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-
30	SAUVAGE-SOUTHGATE Troy	11%	45%	34%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.