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Div II Women's Saber

Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 4:00 PM

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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BUSH Bethany	-	-	5%	33%	45%	16%
2	VINOKUR Anita	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
3	HALPERIN Elizabeth H.	-	1%	10%	26%	35%	22%	6%
3	ZHANG Sophie	-	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
5	SHINCHUK Ellisha	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	20%
6	HU Anna	-	-	2%	14%	44%	40%
7	MAK Kaitlin	1%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%	-
8	LOPEZ-ONA Mia	-	4%	17%	34%	31%	12%	1%
9	LIU Moran	-	-	2%	18%	46%	34%
10	GUHA Surabhi	10%	31%	36%	19%	5%	-	-
11	JOHNSTON Lily	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	14%
12	BIRNSTILL Reese	-	1%	9%	25%	35%	24%	6%
13	NAYAK Anika	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	17%	3%
14	NAYAK Esha	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
15	MANI Francesca B.	-	3%	16%	38%	33%	10%
16	KHOST Maeve	1%	7%	33%	42%	16%	2%
17	ZHANG Ruijia Alexa	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
18	WOTZAK Kaia	1%	10%	28%	34%	21%	6%	1%
19	CHOU Zoe	-	5%	19%	35%	30%	10%	-
20	BROWN Aria	5%	25%	40%	23%	6%	-
21	LOCONTO Sophia	1%	10%	37%	38%	13%	1%
22	YEN Natalie	-	-	6%	35%	44%	15%
23	YANO Wendy	-	-	-	1%	13%	42%	44%
24	LIM Alexa J.	8%	30%	37%	20%	5%	1%	-
25	BARNES Sarah	18%	39%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
26	CHAVAN Arya	-	-	5%	27%	47%	21%
27	FOURNIER Madison	36%	47%	15%	2%	-	-
28	GETZONI Mary	33%	50%	15%	2%	-	-
29	HARRISON Allie	27%	52%	19%	2%	-	-
30	SRINATH Lyra A.	2%	19%	36%	29%	12%	2%	-
31	AKULA Roszlynn	11%	32%	34%	17%	5%	1%	-
32	MAROSFOI Virag	28%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
33	DESAUTELS Alexandra	4%	27%	51%	16%	2%	-
34	CHURCH Madeline	46%	44%	10%	-	-	-
35	CUTLER Juliet	20%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
36	SCHAKE Sasha	2%	11%	26%	32%	22%	8%	1%
37	SIMMONS Kinley	-	4%	18%	35%	30%	11%	1%
38	PEDICONE Clare	4%	27%	43%	22%	4%	-	-
39	ROBERTSON Szilvia	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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