Thanksgiving Throwdown

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 12:30 PM

Richmond Fencing Club, Richmond VA - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	OTT James (Jimmy) P.	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	PRICE Owen	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
3	REEDER Nicholas W.	-	1%	10%	35%	43%	11%
3	SHANKS Aidan T.	-	-	-	4%	20%	47%	29%
5	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	-	-	4%	25%	50%	21%
6	SOPHRONIUS Jeddie	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	20%
7	TETTERTON Jr Joseph S.	1%	15%	39%	35%	9%	1%
8	HARPER Wesley	-	1%	14%	40%	37%	8%
9	ZIMSKY James	1%	12%	32%	36%	17%	3%
10	KARNAVAS William	-	6%	29%	45%	18%	2%
11	BARTON Henry	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
12	LOVELACE Vander	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
13	ROUNTREE Andrew	1%	13%	39%	35%	10%	1%
14	HAVERSON Rana	2%	13%	31%	33%	16%	4%	-
15	HARTMAN Grayson	-	11%	52%	30%	5%	-
16	KASPER Lucia	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
17	LIN Janice	3%	35%	42%	17%	2%	-
18	TOLENTINO SR. Francis	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	2%
19	LAU-ALLEN Macy	18%	41%	31%	9%	1%	-
20	REED Katherine	2%	15%	39%	33%	10%	1%	-
21	SAY Preston	1%	11%	31%	36%	18%	3%	-
22	STRUMLAUF Jacob	1%	6%	24%	40%	27%	2%
23	SMIGRODZKI Nymeria	-	< 1%	2%	13%	40%	44%
24	BAILEY Linwood	70%	27%	3%	-	-	-
25	POOLE Katherine	11%	36%	38%	14%	1%	-
26	GUARDIOLA Emily	2%	28%	41%	23%	5%	-
27	SHANKS Jennifer	36%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
28	SINGH Meet	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
29	NANAYAKKARA Damin	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
30	MITCHELLL Robert	7%	28%	38%	21%	5%	-
31	ALLEN Lily	57%	36%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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