Thanksgiving Throwdown

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 12:30 PM

Richmond Fencing Club, Richmond VA - Richmond, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 OTT James (Jimmy) P. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 72%
2 PRICE Owen 100% 100% 100% 97% 82% 41%
3 REEDER Nicholas W. 100% 100% 99% 89% 54% 11%
3 SHANKS Aidan T. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 76% 29%
5 FORMY DUVAL Christopher 100% 100% 100% 96% 71% 21%
6 SOPHRONIUS Jeddie 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 61% 20%
7 TETTERTON Jr Joseph S. 100% 99% 84% 45% 10% 1%
8 HARPER Wesley 100% 100% 99% 85% 45% 8%
9 ZIMSKY James 100% 99% 87% 55% 19% 3%
10 KARNAVAS William 100% 100% 93% 64% 20% 2%
11 BARTON Henry 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 4%
12 LOVELACE Vander 100% 93% 67% 31% 8% 1%
13 ROUNTREE Andrew 100% 99% 85% 47% 11% 1%
14 HAVERSON Rana 100% 98% 85% 53% 21% 4% -
15 HARTMAN Grayson 100% 100% 88% 36% 5% -
16 KASPER Lucia 100% 97% 80% 46% 16% 2% -
17 LIN Janice 100% 97% 61% 19% 2% -
18 TOLENTINO SR. Francis 100% 99% 86% 53% 18% 2%
19 LAU-ALLEN Macy 100% 82% 40% 9% 1% -
20 REED Katherine 100% 98% 83% 44% 12% 1% -
21 SAY Preston 100% 99% 87% 57% 20% 3% -
22 STRUMLAUF Jacob 100% 99% 93% 69% 29% 2%
23 SMIGRODZKI Nymeria 100% 100% 100% 98% 85% 44%
24 BAILEY Linwood 100% 30% 4% - - -
25 POOLE Katherine 100% 89% 53% 15% 1% -
26 GUARDIOLA Emily 100% 98% 70% 29% 6% -
27 SHANKS Jennifer 100% 64% 21% 3% - -
28 SINGH Meet 100% 77% 36% 9% 1% - -
29 NANAYAKKARA Damin 100% 99% 90% 65% 29% 5%
30 MITCHELLL Robert 100% 93% 64% 26% 5% -
31 ALLEN Lily 100% 43% 7% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.