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Home for the Holidays Open (WWC #3)

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 10:00 AM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	PORRAS Cristian	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
2	MITBERG Gregory W.	-	-	-	1%	16%	83%
3	SPROWLES Cameron D.	-	4%	24%	43%	26%	3%
3	LEE Benjamin H.	-	-	-	2%	22%	76%
5	WEI Qiancheng	-	1%	15%	38%	35%	11%
6	LEE Christopher T.	-	-	3%	24%	48%	24%
7	HAYES Nadia	-	-	2%	15%	45%	38%
8	MIN Eric	-	-	2%	20%	49%	29%
9	GUERRA Gabriel H.	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	22%
10	LIPPMAN Sam	-	6%	31%	42%	18%	3%
11	KIM Jackson	-	1%	9%	36%	41%	13%
12	SHAGIDANYAN German	-	8%	33%	42%	17%	1%
13	KRYLTSOV Michael	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
14	LIU Zixian (Aaron)	9%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
15	BEAVER Ava	1%	44%	41%	12%	1%	-
16	KIM Andrew J.	-	3%	21%	43%	30%	2%
17	TONKOVICH Ryan	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-
18	WU Alistair	3%	20%	39%	30%	7%	-
19	ROZALSKI Eli	-	4%	25%	45%	23%	3%
20	CHUNG Yeongbin	-	11%	38%	38%	13%	-
21	SHAJI Karthik	-	-	4%	26%	46%	24%
22	HAN Ashley	18%	46%	28%	7%	1%	-
23	HAN Crystal	7%	29%	41%	21%	3%	-
24	YAN Noelle	1%	14%	43%	33%	9%	1%
25	ZHANG Matthew	21%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
26	HARROCH Faustin	27%	46%	23%	3%	-	-
27	GUTIERREZ Nikolai A.	-	1%	11%	35%	45%	7%
28	VALENTINE Iain	2%	38%	42%	16%	2%	-
29	GRANHOLM Carolyn N.	1%	9%	30%	40%	19%	2%
30	ROSSMAN Brock	-	16%	50%	28%	5%	-
31	FECAROTTA Ryan	18%	44%	31%	6%	-	-
32	SKYWARK Andrew	5%	40%	42%	12%	1%	-
33	POWERS Douglas A.	10%	34%	38%	16%	2%	-
34	KLEINMAN Joseph	89%	10%	-	-	-	-
35	TEARSE Robert (Bob) G.	52%	40%	7%	-	-	-
36	NICHOLSON John	95%	5%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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