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Home for the Holidays Open (WWC #3)

Senior Men's Épée

Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 2:00 PM

Rain City Fencing Center - Bellevue, WA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HUANG Thomas	-	-	-	3%	18%	44%	35%
2	SPROWLES Cameron D.	-	-	-	-	6%	36%	57%
3	LI Brian X.	-	-	1%	6%	29%	50%	15%
3	KHRISSANOV Peter	-	5%	22%	37%	26%	8%	1%
5	HAMZA Tudor	-	2%	12%	34%	38%	13%	1%
6	LIPPMAN Jake	1%	14%	44%	32%	8%	1%	-
7	MAKMATOV Vadim	-	-	1%	9%	30%	42%	18%
8	BU Xian Chen	-	1%	6%	22%	42%	30%
9	DONDISCH Ilan	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%
10	LEE Tobias (Toby) T.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	44%	26%
11	WELDON Benjamin	-	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	20%
12	LEE Andrew O.	-	-	-	1%	9%	37%	53%
13	DU Shunyu K.	4%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
14	KILUK Andrew	-	-	5%	25%	42%	23%	3%
15	HONZ Jacob	-	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	17%
16	CARLSON Jesse	-	1%	8%	26%	39%	23%	4%
17	ZHOU Justin	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
18	VARNEY John R.	-	-	2%	12%	37%	39%	9%
19	KLEIN Johannes	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
19	WEGENER Soren	1%	11%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
21	PETERSEN Ephraim	-	4%	21%	39%	28%	7%	1%
22	WONG Matthew	1%	8%	27%	37%	21%	5%	-
23	KRYLTSOV Greg	3%	20%	42%	28%	7%	1%	-
24	GOLAB Alex	5%	24%	40%	24%	6%	1%	-
25	KIM Andrew J.	1%	10%	31%	36%	18%	4%	-
26	GUAN Nathan	-	6%	27%	41%	21%	3%	-
27	PAINTER Patrick	1%	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
28	JOHNSON Jeff	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	27%
29	BLOM Mark D.	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%	-
30	STOCK Jordan	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%
31	KWON Andrew	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
32	KIM Teo	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
33	RABOIN James	37%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
34	SONG Pascal	29%	43%	23%	5%	1%	-	-
35	FABBRO Andrew	5%	34%	39%	18%	4%	-	-
36	GILMORE Nicholas	48%	38%	12%	2%	-	-	-
37	CHAKRABORTY Zorian	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-	-
38	KANIA Robert	24%	48%	23%	4%	-	-	-
39	XUE Jake	50%	39%	9%	1%	-	-	-
40	SILKEY Jason	48%	41%	10%	1%	-	-	-
41	NGUYEN Thai	10%	38%	41%	10%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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