Treasure Chest RYC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Saturday, January 13, 2024 at 9:00 AM

Treasure Island YMCA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	RAU Shogun	-	-	4%	27%	52%	16%	1%
2	EVANS Desmond	-	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	20%
3	CHEN Ryker	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
3	DING Sam	-	3%	20%	41%	28%	7%	1%
5	LEE Conrad	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
6	PARK Avan	-	1%	6%	26%	44%	24%
7	LI Aaron	1%	9%	33%	38%	17%	2%	-
8	MANANSALA Caleb	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
9	MURDOCK Koichi	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
10	LEBURU Abhiram	-	-	-	-	4%	26%	69%
11	YU Jinyuan	2%	14%	30%	33%	17%	4%
12	ELSAYED Omar	-	-	1%	9%	30%	41%	18%
13	JUE Lucas	2%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
14	SUN Lucas	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
15	GOLDSTEIN Benjamin	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
16	SCHOR William	18%	46%	28%	7%	1%	-
17	NGUYEN Norris	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%	-
18	LEUNG Joon	-	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
19	CREMEL Remi	-	2%	11%	32%	41%	14%	1%
20	SHENOY sean	-	3%	18%	38%	33%	8%
21	SHENOY Neil	3%	15%	31%	32%	16%	3%
22	ZHANG William	-	5%	22%	37%	27%	8%	1%
23	SINGH Reyaansh	24%	45%	25%	6%	1%	-
24	BEZBORODKO-VILLAIN Jules	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	14%
25	HO Cameron	4%	20%	37%	29%	9%	-
26	JIA Jaiden	1%	12%	34%	36%	15%	2%
27	LIN Stewart	1%	11%	33%	37%	16%	2%
28	CHOI Aaron	5%	27%	41%	22%	5%	-	-
29	LI Lief	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
30	LIU Aiden	18%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-	-
31	WANG Andrew	-	15%	36%	33%	14%	2%
32	LIN Zhengxuan	1%	13%	34%	35%	15%	2%
33	LI Yunze	-	-	5%	21%	39%	28%	6%
34	LEE Roland	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
35	FOLOMEEV Dmitrii	23%	42%	27%	7%	1%	-	-
36	YANG Jaron	-	2%	14%	34%	36%	12%	1%
37	GU Evan	-	7%	25%	37%	25%	6%
38	VASANTH Arjun	11%	41%	36%	11%	1%	-
39	LIN Dylan	35%	43%	18%	3%	-	-
40	CREMEL Louis	55%	35%	9%	1%	-	-
41	LEE Reiden	6%	25%	38%	24%	6%	-	-
42	CHEN James	-	4%	20%	39%	29%	8%	1%
43	YAN Aaron	34%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
44	YANG Nolan	34%	45%	18%	3%	-	-	-
45	WANG Ian	18%	47%	27%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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