Treasure Chest RYC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Saturday, January 13, 2024 at 2:00 PM

Treasure Island YMCA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KANG Matthew	-	-	-	-	4%	28%	68%
2	GRIGORIEV Roman	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	22%
3	SOULES-ONO Makoa	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	12%
3	ZHAO Aidan	-	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
5	TANG Morgan	-	-	-	1%	10%	40%	50%
6	SRIVATSAV Anay	-	-	5%	26%	46%	21%	2%
7	LUC Linkin	-	-	1%	9%	36%	46%	9%
8	KANG Jeremy	-	-	-	-	3%	28%	69%
9	SRIVATSAV Ishaan	-	-	1%	7%	32%	46%	14%
10	CHANG William	1%	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
11	THOMAS Liam	10%	42%	38%	9%	1%	-	-
12	XU Ethan	4%	21%	38%	28%	9%	1%	-
13	DECHEV Vlad	1%	6%	21%	36%	29%	9%
14	HRISTOV Nickolas	-	-	2%	14%	37%	38%	8%
15	WESTMORELAND-BROWN Cole	-	4%	16%	33%	31%	13%	2%
16	ORLINO Samuel	-	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
17	KIM Eric	-	-	4%	20%	40%	30%	5%
18	BAERENWALD Tybalt Wolfram	-	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	12%
19	YUE Ivan	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
20	MOORE Greyson	1%	6%	24%	38%	25%	6%
21	NGUYEN Drake	-	6%	29%	43%	19%	3%	-
22	RAMBHIA Smit	-	-	5%	25%	44%	23%	3%
23	BELHE Hridhaan	2%	16%	34%	31%	13%	3%	-
24	GOTTSCHALK Theodore	2%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
25	WANG James	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
26	GRENIER Tristan	1%	10%	31%	38%	17%	3%	-
27	VAN ROY Ray	1%	8%	26%	35%	23%	7%	1%
28	XIA Daniel	12%	37%	36%	13%	2%	-	-
29	ELSAYED Yahia	-	7%	26%	38%	24%	6%	-
30	TAN Daniel	3%	22%	43%	26%	5%	-	-
31	ESTEVES Andres	-	3%	17%	36%	32%	11%	1%
32	YU Albert	10%	42%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
33	DUFF Michael	9%	32%	38%	18%	3%	-	-
34	YU Joshua	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
35	SCHILLA Max	30%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
36	MALLARD Arthur	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
37	CHEN Yihan	57%	35%	7%	1%	-	-	-
38	LUO Gavin	25%	42%	25%	7%	1%	-	-
39	BOSSOW Grant	1%	30%	42%	22%	5%	-
40	LI Sky	27%	44%	24%	5%	-	-	-
41	CHEN Dylan	49%	38%	11%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.