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13th Annual Olympian Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, January 13, 2024 at 1:30 PM

Olympian Fencing Club - San Antonio, TX, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	THAYER Jake T.	-	-	-	-	1%	23%	77%
2	KRAMER Jack P.	-	-	-	3%	18%	43%	35%
3	HALLMAN Nicholas (Nick) J.	-	-	-	1%	9%	42%	48%
3	FEINGERSCH Ariav (Ari) B.	-	-	4%	26%	46%	24%
5	POPOVICI Andrew E.	-	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	4%
6	HURME Tommi K.	-	-	-	1%	15%	55%	28%
7	HOLCOMB Wesley	-	7%	30%	39%	19%	4%	-
8	YOUNG Vivian	-	-	2%	12%	34%	40%	12%
9	OBREBSKI Kevin	1%	7%	26%	41%	24%	2%	-
10	SEEFELDT William Henry C.	-	2%	10%	29%	36%	19%	3%
11	SANCHEZ Emanuel	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
12	SAYLOR Harrison G.	-	-	-	2%	20%	62%	15%
13	GAITHER Christopher W.	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
14	MCALISTER Ian	-	-	7%	32%	49%	11%	1%
15	NEAL John P.	-	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
16	BOURDEAU Emily B.	-	8%	30%	38%	20%	4%
17	FRENCH Timothy	-	-	12%	37%	38%	13%
18	SOOS Whitman	15%	37%	33%	13%	2%	-
19	WIEGAND-SHAHANI Braden M.	1%	11%	42%	35%	10%	1%	-
20	HAUSHEER Kuncen	1%	9%	24%	33%	24%	8%	1%
21	ELLISOR Drayten	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%	-
22	HAWLEY Justin	-	8%	35%	41%	15%	1%	-
23	QUINTANILLA Danielle A.	14%	41%	35%	9%	1%	-
24	KASKAN Peter E.	1%	7%	24%	38%	25%	5%
25	PEREZ Daniel	13%	42%	36%	10%	-	-
26	VEERAVALLI Vivek	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
27	HENTOSH Pierce	-	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
28	WHITE Derrek W.	1%	9%	32%	37%	18%	4%	-
29	COHEN Nathan	7%	33%	37%	18%	4%	-	-
30	PEREZ Vicente	3%	17%	37%	32%	10%	1%	-
31	MORRIS Quentin	1%	9%	32%	40%	17%	1%	-
32	LESCURE Dimitri	3%	19%	37%	30%	10%	1%
33	NGUYEN Khanh	28%	44%	23%	5%	-	-	-
34	OLSON Joseph	25%	47%	25%	4%	-	-	-
35	BARTON Christian	27%	46%	23%	4%	-	-	-
36	REHUREK Luke	5%	46%	37%	10%	1%	-	-
37	SADLER Daniel	2%	23%	53%	21%	-	-
38	LU Haoyang	13%	41%	37%	8%	1%	-	-
39	BRUMMETT Anna	23%	44%	27%	6%	-	-	-
40	KELLEY Cathy A.	53%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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