Treasure Chest RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Monday, January 15, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Treasure Island YMCA - San Francisco, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	PARK William	-	-	-	3%	15%	40%	42%
2	YEE Colin	-	-	1%	7%	27%	47%	18%
3	FUKUDA Brando	-	-	-	1%	9%	40%	50%
3	WEI Winston	-	1%	8%	28%	42%	21%
5	DOUGLASS Liam	-	1%	8%	26%	37%	23%	5%
6	KIM Charlie	-	2%	15%	37%	35%	11%
6	GANAPATHI Eshan	-	-	5%	24%	46%	25%
8	BHARDWAJ Ranbir	-	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%
9	KIM Andrew	-	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
10	CHEN Ryker	-	-	3%	19%	45%	32%
11	SAFTA Aidan	-	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%
12	HE Ian	-	-	1%	9%	34%	47%	9%
13	EVANS Desmond	-	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
14	CREMEL Remi	-	3%	13%	29%	34%	18%	3%
15	PARK Avan	1%	8%	26%	37%	22%	5%	-
16	LEE Conrad	-	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	4%
17	WU Thomas	-	1%	8%	24%	35%	25%	7%
18	DING Sam	-	2%	14%	32%	32%	16%	3%
19	KO Ian	1%	13%	32%	33%	16%	4%	-
20	SHENOY sean	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%	-
21	MURDOCK Koichi	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	3%
22	ALCAZAREN Cian	-	-	2%	10%	30%	39%	19%
23	LI Aaron	2%	12%	33%	37%	14%	2%
24	GUO Joey	-	2%	16%	35%	33%	13%	1%
25	WONG Connor	-	5%	21%	36%	28%	9%	1%
26	YU Jinyuan	6%	26%	37%	23%	6%	1%	-
27	CHEN Aiden	20%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
28	SHENOY Neil	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
29	JUE Lucas	2%	15%	33%	32%	14%	3%	-
30	HO Cameron	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-	-
31	CHEUNG Henry	17%	40%	32%	10%	1%	-
32	MORENO Raul	-	3%	12%	29%	35%	18%	3%
33	CHETWANI naman	-	4%	18%	34%	30%	12%	2%
34	SHEN Alaric	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
35	HE Gary	1%	10%	29%	36%	19%	4%	-
36	GOLDSTEIN Benjamin	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-	-
37	PANTH Anirudh	20%	42%	29%	8%	1%	-
38	ELSAYED Omar	-	3%	17%	37%	33%	9%
39	SIMS Luke	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
40	KO Cameron	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
41	SRIDHARA Shaan	4%	22%	36%	27%	10%	2%	-
42	NGUYEN Nolan	21%	40%	29%	10%	1%	-	-
43	VASANTH Arjun	26%	46%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
44	LIN Stewart	19%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
45	HSU Liam	37%	46%	15%	2%	-	-	-
46	SCHOR William	47%	40%	12%	2%	-	-	-
47	LE Oliver	59%	34%	7%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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