Event Results

Div II Women's Saber

Fairfax Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC & Y8Surprise Map

Saturday, January 20, 2024 at 11:30 AM Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center · Fredericksburg, VA, USA

27 finishers

Difficulty Upsets Pool Heatmap Strength

Green wins and red losses stand out more as the result becomes less expected.

#	Name	Bout Difficulty vs. Outcome		Pool Victories
#	Name	Pool	DE	Exp.	Act.	Diff.
1	XU Emily T.	V V V V V V	V V V V	4.4	6	+1.6
2	MCAFEE Jada	V V V V V V	V V V D	3.4	6	+2.6
3	WUNNAVA Ellora	V D V V V V	V V D	3.4	5	+1.6
3	BARROSO Isabela	D V V V V	V V V D	3.2	4	+0.8
5	WUNNAVA Elina	D V V V V D	V V D	3.1	4	+0.9
6	SCHOEW Margot	V V V D V D	V V D	3.2	4	+0.8
7	FLATT Sophia	V V D D V	V V D	3.6	3	-0.6
8	HANLON Lucy	D V D V V D	V V D	3.1	3	-0.1
9	HUA Catherine W.	V V D V V V	D	5.1	5	-0.1
10	COLBY Mercer	V V V D V V	D	4.2	5	+0.8
11	MCGRAW Sadie	V V V V D	V D	3.4	4	+0.6
12	BERNARD Kathryn	V D V D V V	V D	4.1	4	-0.1
13	BAINS Nandini	V V D V V D	V D	3.6	4	+0.4
14	DEHON Inès	V D V D D V	V D	4.2	3	-1.2
15	MACKAY Katherine	D D V D V	V D	2.5	2	-0.5
16	ZHAO Emily W.	D V V D D D	V D	4.0	2	-2.0
17	DUBROVINA Irene	V D V V D D	D	2.8	3	+0.2
18	FLEEGER Sophia	V D D V D	D	1.5	2	+0.5
19	KALINICHENKO Yekaterina	D D D D V V	D	2.0	2	-
20	BARCZAY Sara E.	V D D V D D	D	2.1	2	-0.1
21	BARNES Sarah	D V D V D D	D	1.5	2	+0.5
22	BARBORIAK Emily	D D D D D V	D	2.2	1	-1.2
23	VILD Grace	D D D D D V	D	1.9	1	-0.9
24	ZHANG Jiaqing	D D D V D D	D	2.2	1	-1.2
25	SOHN Juniper	D D D D D	D	0.8	0	-0.8
26	MAROSFOI Virag	D D D D D D	D	1.7	0	-1.7
27	MARTIN Audrey	D D D D D D	D	0.7	0	-0.7

Outcome	Difficulty	Win Probability
Victory	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Victory	Hard	20% to 40%
Victory	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Victory	Easy	60% to 80%
Victory	Very Easy	80% to 100%
Defeat	Very Hard	0% to 20%
Defeat	Hard	20% to 40%
Defeat	Roughly Even	40% to 60%
Defeat	Easy	60% to 80%
Defeat	Very Easy	80% to 100%

The future of US Fencing is at stake!