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Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	YAN William	-	-	-	1%	11%	38%	50%
2	DECK Tyson	-	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
3	CHEN Jonathan	-	-	4%	21%	44%	31%
3	VALENCIA Jose	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%
5	FELDMAN Drew	-	-	1%	10%	40%	49%
6	BREUER Daniel	1%	8%	27%	37%	22%	5%
7	SADHU Neiyam	1%	12%	33%	35%	16%	3%
8	GERSTMANN Max T.	-	2%	11%	29%	39%	20%
9	LIN Felix	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	6%
10	TIAGI George	-	1%	8%	29%	42%	19%
11	SZULIM Lucjan	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
12	JENSBY Jason	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	13%
13	TSAO Oliver	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
14	ATWOOD Griffin	-	-	1%	7%	27%	44%	21%
15	EYSTER Edison	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-
16	LICHTERMAN Jakub	-	2%	14%	33%	35%	14%	2%
17	KO Zuriel	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
18	HALL Noah	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
19	REHM Liam	3%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
20	XU Ivan	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	26%	5%
21	FRUTH Evan	-	6%	25%	38%	24%	7%	1%
22	BIALIK Noah	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%	1%
23	PARCELL Colby	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
24	SLEP Solomon	1%	10%	30%	38%	18%	3%
25	FENG Brendan	1%	12%	32%	35%	17%	3%
26	LEE Thomas	28%	47%	21%	4%	-	-	-
27	HARDRICK Noah	-	4%	21%	37%	28%	8%	1%
28	TSAO Alister	1%	11%	32%	36%	17%	3%	-
29	RINALDI Savio	3%	19%	39%	30%	8%	1%
30	KOGAN Yelisey L.	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
31	BENSON Jacob	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
32	LIEUWMA Nicolas	-	5%	21%	37%	27%	8%	1%
33	CHAWLA Abhishek	25%	43%	25%	6%	1%	-
34	BENE Andrew	15%	42%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
35	STRUCKER Rocco	12%	38%	35%	14%	2%	-
36	PAUL James	6%	31%	38%	20%	5%	-
37	AKST Elliot	12%	35%	36%	15%	3%	-
38	WEST-BEY Ahmad	38%	42%	17%	3%	-	-
38	MICHALSKI Brandon	48%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
40	RICHMAN Izak	30%	45%	21%	4%	-	-	-
41	ROORDA Easton	40%	43%	15%	2%	-	-	-
42	TURECK Nathan	11%	34%	36%	15%	3%	-
43	MARGULIS Jared	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	2%
44	YASAKCI Burhan	15%	39%	33%	12%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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