Fairfax Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC & Y8

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KO Zuriel	-	-	5%	24%	46%	24%
2	GERSTMANN Max T.	-	-	3%	18%	45%	34%
3	YAN William	-	-	1%	6%	21%	40%	32%
3	JENSBY Jason	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
5	TSAO Oliver	-	1%	8%	30%	44%	18%
6	TIAGI George	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	26%
7	VLASENKO Bohdan	4%	18%	32%	29%	14%	3%	-
8	MONTALVO ashur	3%	16%	30%	30%	16%	4%	-
9	SLEP Solomon	-	6%	25%	39%	25%	5%
10	LIN Felix	-	1%	6%	21%	35%	29%	9%
11	MONTALVO Emmeric	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
12	CHEN Jonathan	-	-	3%	18%	44%	34%
13	STRUCKER Rocco	8%	37%	37%	15%	3%	-
14	SADHU Neiyam	2%	10%	25%	32%	22%	8%	1%
15	XU Ivan	1%	8%	23%	33%	24%	9%	1%
16	TSAO Alister	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
17	FENG Brendan	1%	10%	36%	39%	13%	1%
18	MARGULIS Jared	2%	11%	26%	33%	21%	7%	1%
19	SZULIM Lucjan	1%	8%	24%	34%	24%	9%	1%
20	EYSTER Edison	3%	16%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
21	BENSON Jacob	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
22	WALKE Devin	-	7%	27%	41%	21%	3%
23	BIALIK Noah	1%	13%	37%	36%	11%	1%
24	FRUTH Evan	3%	23%	42%	26%	6%	-
25	PARCELL Colby	7%	34%	39%	16%	3%	-
26	REHM Liam	1%	9%	30%	38%	19%	3%
27	RICHMAN Izak	43%	43%	13%	1%	-	-
28	LICHTERMAN Jakub	5%	20%	33%	27%	12%	3%	-
29	HO Alex	19%	46%	28%	7%	1%	-
30	CUNLIFFE Sebastian	34%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
31	MICHALSKI Brandon	58%	35%	7%	1%	-	-
32	LEE Thomas	61%	33%	6%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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