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January Fenceathon

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, January 28, 2024 at 2:00 PM

The Fencing Center - san jose, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	KHAYAT Ziad N.	-	-	-	1%	13%	87%
2	HEDGES Philip S.	-	-	-	-	5%	95%
3	MENEGOLI Lorenzo	-	-	2%	22%	76%
3	CHAKRAVARTHY Arjun	25%	45%	25%	4%	-
5	HSU Joshua	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	< 1%
6	KUO Rylan	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%	-
7	JAIN Samyak	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%	1%
8	MARIANI Lou	-	-	3%	17%	41%	39%
9	WONG Preston	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
10	LAURIMAA Emil	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
11	ACKERMANN Richard	1%	12%	37%	37%	12%	-
12	MANA Arnav	10%	36%	40%	13%	1%
13	SMAY II Joseph E.	1%	11%	38%	43%	6%
14	XU Yanwen	1%	12%	33%	38%	15%	-
15	KOUTSOUKOS James	13%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-
16	KUO Michael	21%	45%	28%	5%	-
17	SALISTRA Emilia	39%	41%	17%	3%	-	-
18	HERSH Benjamin	15%	36%	33%	14%	2%	-
19	HEDGES Luci	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
20	PRAKASH Hari	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%	-
21	TRAN Noble	4%	19%	38%	31%	9%	-
22	KOERBER Christopher T.	< 1%	5%	20%	37%	30%	7%
22	MA Ryan	7%	51%	34%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.