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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HO Brianna W.	-	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
2	SHAW Kayla M.	-	-	-	4%	20%	42%	33%
3	PEVZNER Victoria	-	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
3	CHUSID Mikayla	-	-	2%	12%	32%	37%	17%
5	PERLMAN Talia	-	-	1%	9%	28%	41%	21%
6	ACHILOVA Feyza	-	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
7	CHO Rebecca H.	-	1%	5%	18%	36%	32%	9%
8	WANG Chloe	-	3%	15%	32%	32%	14%	2%
9	ADAMS KIM Natalie	-	1%	7%	24%	37%	25%	7%
10	XU Madison	-	-	2%	11%	34%	44%	10%
11	XU Christine	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	28%
12	CHEN Kelly	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
13	BHAN Zala	3%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%	-
14	DRANOVSKY Dasha	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	9%
15	OLIVEIRA Lavinia M.	2%	24%	40%	25%	7%	1%	-
16	MCKEE Alexandra K.	-	6%	27%	40%	22%	4%	-
17	HUANG NATALIE	-	-	3%	17%	41%	34%	6%
18	PAHLAVI Dahlia	2%	12%	31%	35%	18%	3%
19	SEO IRENE Y.	-	-	4%	22%	43%	28%	4%
20	FELLUS Talia E.	1%	15%	36%	33%	13%	2%	-
21	PAVE Claire	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%	-
22	WONG Sophia M.	-	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
23	NARANG Maya	-	2%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%
24	CLOWES Madison	1%	8%	29%	38%	20%	4%	-
25	CHEN Georgia M.	7%	27%	37%	22%	6%	1%
26	WANG Ashley	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%
27	WU Celine	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
28	ORVANANOS Anice	-	2%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
29	SLASKI Caroline O.	1%	14%	43%	32%	9%	1%	-
30	OETZEL Taylor	29%	48%	20%	3%	-	-	-
31	SIMPSON Lydia Q.	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	2%	-
32	CHEN Jasmine	17%	49%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
33	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	4%	22%	42%	26%	5%	-
34	RASO Olivia	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
35	CHARALEL Jessica	28%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
35	VAYNBERG Ellen	20%	46%	27%	6%	1%	-	-
37	SHTROM Uma A.	38%	44%	16%	2%	-	-	-
38	LOGAN Jade	18%	38%	31%	11%	2%	-
39	SILVER Anna	39%	47%	12%	1%	-	-	-
40	THIRUVENGADAM Harini	58%	36%	5%	-	-	-	-
41	SHAH Aanya	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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