NJFA RJCC & RYC

Junior Women's Épée

Sunday, December 8, 2019 at 3:00 PM

MAPLEWOOD , NJ - MAPLEWOOD, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	LU Junyao	-	-	-	4%	34%	62%
2	MUTAKABBIR amira	-	-	1%	15%	56%	28%
3	LI Alisha	-	6%	26%	40%	24%	5%
3	KOWALSKY Rachel A.	-	-	-	6%	40%	53%
5	SAAL Anna	-	1%	6%	26%	45%	22%
6	SMITH Grace L.	-	-	-	6%	32%	62%
7	ALVIDREZ Francesca A.	-	-	4%	28%	51%	16%
8	OSBORN Sabrina	15%	46%	32%	7%	-	-
9	BAJAJ Nikita K.	-	-	5%	24%	43%	27%
10	REID Anousheh	-	-	3%	17%	45%	35%
11	HILL Phoebe	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
12	NICOU Nicole	-	6%	27%	41%	22%	3%
13	XU Jessica	3%	20%	45%	27%	4%	-
14	ZAKHAROV Anne E.	-	4%	25%	41%	25%	5%
15	BANKULLA Misha R.	2%	17%	40%	31%	9%	1%
16	BRASH Olivia	52%	39%	9%	1%	-	-
17	ZENG Katrina	-	3%	19%	41%	32%	5%
18	HUNT Nicola	-	7%	32%	45%	16%	1%
19	APPLEBEE Andralyn	2%	19%	44%	30%	4%	-
20	HARJANI Meher	7%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
21	JIA Elizabeth	43%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
22	MOK Chloe R.	1%	14%	42%	36%	6%	-
23	GREENSTEIN Maya	19%	43%	29%	8%	1%	-
24	BOOK Ayelet	3%	21%	39%	28%	7%	1%
25	RAI Ananya	2%	17%	38%	32%	9%	1%
26	LEE Anna	9%	39%	37%	13%	2%	-
27	SINGH Aayushi	16%	52%	28%	4%	-	-
28	RHODY Evalyn	47%	41%	11%	1%	-	-
29	LIU Angela	48%	45%	7%	-	-	-
30	LIU Sheryl	56%	36%	8%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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