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W&M Conomikes-Gutenburg Memorial Open

Senior Mixed Foil

Saturday, February 24, 2024 at 9:00 AM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KLYCZEK Andrew	-	-	-	3%	16%	42%	39%
2	BRATTON Jack S.	-	-	-	-	3%	28%	69%
3	PETERS Nathan M.	-	-	-	1%	12%	39%	48%
3	EMENHEISER Conrad	-	-	2%	14%	34%	37%	13%
5	SEMP Iain	-	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	6%
6	POLONI Giovanni	-	4%	29%	47%	18%	2%
7	YAP Nathan	-	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	5%
8	OTT James (Jimmy) P.	-	-	-	5%	22%	44%	29%
9	LAPALLO Adam C.	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%	-
10	GIBSON Russell L.	-	-	3%	17%	39%	37%	4%
11	PEZZAT Daniel S.	-	-	5%	24%	41%	26%	5%
12	MOORHOUSE Emmett	1%	12%	31%	35%	17%	3%	-
13	CRANE William	2%	19%	44%	27%	7%	1%	-
14	ISAACSON Bjorn	-	2%	41%	44%	12%	1%
15	REEDER Nicholas W.	-	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	4%
16	FADL Omar	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	23%
17	O'DONNELL Breck	-	-	1%	10%	41%	48%
18	HINDS David E.	-	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
19	THAN Duc	8%	40%	39%	11%	1%	-	-
20	EDRALIN II Chadwick Q.	1%	6%	22%	34%	26%	9%	1%
21	MITCHELL Christopher	1%	20%	47%	25%	5%	-	-
22	CONANT Aidan	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%	-
23	PRICE Owen	-	1%	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
24	HAYES Nathan P.	-	2%	13%	33%	34%	15%	2%
25	ZIMSKY James	9%	30%	35%	20%	6%	1%	-
26	EDRALIN Alexander Jordan Q.	-	-	5%	26%	50%	19%
27	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	-	1%	10%	36%	37%	14%	1%
28	RUSANOV Oleg	-	1%	8%	29%	39%	20%	3%
29	TETTERTON Jr Joseph S.	19%	38%	29%	11%	2%	-	-
30	SAE-TUNG Kevin	27%	52%	19%	2%	-	-	-
31	MAHNKEN Thomas P.	3%	15%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
32	JACKSON Evan	6%	29%	38%	21%	6%	1%	-
33	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%	-
34	GIBSON Karino	81%	18%	1%	-	-	-
35	DEVINNEY Dale	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
36	KASPER Lucia	12%	40%	34%	12%	2%	-	-
37	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	16%	37%	32%	13%	2%	-	-
38	LIU Angela	12%	72%	15%	1%	-	-
39	FIGLOZZI Cordelia	60%	35%	4%	-	-	-	-
40	YE Jessica	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
41	POOLE Katherine	37%	44%	17%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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