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W&M Conomikes-Gutenburg Memorial Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 25, 2024 at 9:00 AM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	BAGHA Armin	-	2%	11%	28%	36%	21%	3%
2	O'HARA Keegan J.	-	-	1%	16%	50%	33%
3	CARTER Austin L.	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
3	CULPEPPER John (JR) R.	-	-	-	1%	7%	32%	60%
5	DIMMETT David C.	-	-	-	4%	22%	45%	29%
6	OTT James (Jimmy) P.	-	-	1%	13%	48%	38%
7	PETERS Nathan M.	-	-	1%	14%	44%	41%
8	COUGHLIN Nolan E.	-	-	-	6%	28%	45%	21%
9	WOODLEY Colin	-	-	-	6%	30%	64%
10	MURRAY-GRAMLICH Robert	-	1%	7%	21%	35%	28%	9%
11	MONTESI Eric	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	6%	1%
12	STEPHENS Corbin	-	6%	28%	42%	22%	2%
13	CHAWLA Armaan	-	-	5%	26%	49%	20%
14	SCHAPIRO Jacob	-	-	6%	28%	41%	21%	4%
15	BARTLETT Lauren	-	7%	30%	40%	19%	3%	-
16	GRESHAM Rebekah L.	2%	15%	37%	32%	11%	1%
17	LAM Bill	3%	23%	47%	23%	4%	-
18	HURST Palmer	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%
19	WALLACE George	-	1%	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%
20	WATSON Raymond	-	1%	10%	33%	41%	15%	1%
21	GRESHAM Sarah L.	-	13%	40%	34%	11%	1%	-
22	WHITE Myles	1%	9%	32%	39%	17%	1%
23	HERMES Henry	-	5%	27%	42%	23%	2%
24	MOLITERNI Matthew N.	-	2%	20%	52%	23%	3%
25	KELLOFF Michael	6%	34%	50%	9%	-	-
26	SAAL Anna	7%	46%	36%	10%	1%	-
27	YI Nathan	5%	46%	37%	11%	1%	-
28	BUI Ryan	18%	48%	29%	5%	-	-	-
29	ZOOK Evan D.	-	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
30	FEAGIN Patrick	25%	46%	24%	5%	-	-
31	TANG Justin	5%	28%	44%	19%	3%	-	-
32	SINGH Jawand	8%	28%	35%	21%	7%	1%	-
33	SOUTHWORTH Connor	13%	42%	36%	9%	-	-
34	WANDMACHER GUERRERO Angela	16%	45%	32%	7%	1%	-	-
35	LUNDEN Espen	44%	43%	12%	1%	-	-	-
36	MOORE Mary	65%	29%	5%	-	-	-
37	DIX Philip-Alexander	60%	34%	5%	-	-	-
38	DICKENS Thomas	15%	35%	32%	15%	3%	-	-
38	SCHICKEL Juliana	34%	43%	19%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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