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CMHS Midwest HS Invitational

Men's Épée

Saturday, November 23, 2019 at 8:30 AM

Catholic Memorial High School - Waukesha, WI, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1
1	IVAKIMOV Vasil	8%	92%
3	ZUBECK Dominic	40%	60%
3	WANG Tyler	53%	47%
5	KIRCHNER Samuel	74%	26%
6	NGUYEN Quang (Benny)	40%	60%
7	HEIM Bryce	25%	75%
8	SINGH Ajay	26%	74%
10	NADELLA Nitin	100%
13	PASTER Eli	60%	40%
18	LU Chenyu (Al)	47%	53%
19	BAHRS Daniel Henry	66%	34%
23	CORCORAN Brady	92%	8%
24	TAN Chengyao	75%	25%
25	DECENA Nathan Riley	29%	71%
28	FITZGERALD Aidan	34%	66%
36	JONES Jaden	71%	29%
47	PAULSEN Zachary	60%	40%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.