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MFA Y8, Y10, Y12, Senior (unrated only) - All foil event

Y-12 Mixed Foil

Sunday, March 17, 2024 at 12:00 PM

Marin Fencing Academy - San Rafael, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GUO Joey	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
2	NEUMANN Erika	-	3%	16%	38%	34%	9%	1%
3	CHEN Ryker	-	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
3	HSIAO Ariya	-	1%	5%	18%	33%	32%	12%
5	YANG Steve	-	-	1%	7%	28%	46%	19%
6	HSU Rachel	-	2%	15%	33%	34%	14%	2%
7	ARYA Leela	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	21%	3%
8	SHEN Alaric	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%
9	MA Isabelle	-	-	3%	13%	31%	37%	16%
10	MIYOSHI Kylie	-	2%	11%	29%	35%	20%	4%
11	LI Sophia	-	1%	5%	17%	34%	32%	11%
12	KO Ian	-	5%	18%	32%	30%	14%	2%
13	JUE Lucas	-	2%	13%	39%	34%	11%	1%
14	KIM Parker	6%	21%	33%	26%	11%	3%	-
15	AHN Hayley	1%	12%	33%	35%	15%	3%	-
16	JOESUF Thea	1%	10%	25%	33%	22%	8%	1%
17	JENA Aanvi	-	2%	12%	29%	35%	19%	4%
18	JOESUF Aurielle	2%	11%	28%	33%	20%	5%	-
19	KAJITA Grayson	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
20	SHEN Gloria	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	15%	2%
21	LIU Mia	2%	12%	31%	34%	18%	4%	-
22	YU Xintong	10%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-	-
23	ZHAN Catherine	-	4%	16%	30%	30%	16%	3%
24	LI Aaron	1%	8%	25%	35%	24%	7%	1%
25	CHU Lauren	3%	16%	32%	31%	14%	3%	-
26	PARK Seojeong	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%	-
27	GU Evan	38%	43%	17%	2%	-	-	-
28	ALCAZAREN Cian	6%	22%	34%	26%	11%	2%	-
29	STERNAD Pia	22%	40%	27%	9%	1%	-	-
30	FISCHER Grant	1%	5%	19%	33%	29%	11%	2%
31	JEANSON Sierra	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
32	CHEUNG Henry	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-	-
33	LEONG Wilson Hua	1%	6%	20%	32%	28%	12%	2%
34	CHOI William	-	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%	-
35	DONG Nancy	6%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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