Morris Cup RYC/RJCC

Junior Women's Foil

Sunday, April 7, 2024 at 2:30 PM

Rockland Community College, Eugene Levy Field House - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SHENG Chuxi	-	2%	12%	31%	38%	17%
2	CHO Rebecca H.	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
3	CHEN Renee	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	56%
3	SHIM Grace J.	-	-	2%	14%	38%	38%	9%
5	LEE Lavender	-	-	-	-	2%	19%	80%
6	ORVANANOS Anice	-	-	-	2%	15%	44%	38%
7	FENG Grace	-	-	1%	6%	25%	46%	23%
8	WHELAN Amelia	5%	23%	36%	26%	9%	1%
9	WANG Amabel	-	2%	13%	32%	34%	16%	3%
10	KAPRAN Anastasia	-	4%	19%	35%	29%	11%	1%
11	CHOW Annabelle	-	-	1%	7%	26%	41%	25%
12	ROY Layla	-	2%	13%	32%	36%	16%	1%
13	ZHANG Selena	-	1%	14%	38%	35%	11%	1%
14	FIELD Julianna	-	1%	8%	31%	40%	18%	2%
15	FIELD Elizabeth	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
16	REN Kayley	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
17	LI Eleanor	-	-	2%	12%	32%	38%	16%
18	HARRIS Julia	-	3%	15%	33%	33%	14%	2%
19	WANG Joanna	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
20	RICHARD Dominique	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
21	DIMATULAC Elise Ann	1%	8%	26%	36%	23%	6%	-
22	KAPOOR Saanvi	1%	11%	30%	35%	19%	4%	-
23	RICHARD Clara	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	3%	-
24	SHMAY Anastasia	-	-	2%	12%	33%	39%	14%
25	FENG Audrey	1%	16%	43%	31%	8%	1%	-
26	KIM Claire	2%	15%	35%	32%	13%	2%	-
27	YU Jane	1%	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
28	BABIAC Julia	3%	18%	35%	31%	12%	2%
29	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
30	BERGEL Daphne	3%	19%	36%	30%	11%	2%	-
31	SONG Jenna	3%	28%	39%	23%	6%	1%	-
32	JOO Natalie	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
33	WANG Yudi	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	3%	-
34	LEVY Avery	-	3%	14%	33%	34%	14%	2%
35	ORBE-AUSTIN Nia	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
36	SHENG Katherine	-	6%	23%	36%	26%	8%	1%
36	XIA Mary-Jane	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
38	ZELDIN Nadia	-	2%	13%	31%	35%	16%	2%
39	NEUMAN Sophie	2%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%	-
40	PUOPOLO Mia	28%	41%	24%	6%	1%	-
41	HUNT Abigail S.	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
42	SONG Erin	15%	50%	29%	6%	-	-	-
43	LAZAR Carolina	36%	42%	19%	4%	-	-	-
44	MCDERMOTT Catherine	50%	38%	11%	1%	-	-	-
45	CHOI ERIN	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-	-
46	CHAKRAPANI Ila	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-	-
47	GARCIA HERNANDEZ Matisse	10%	37%	38%	13%	2%	-	-
48	PACE Amelia	8%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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