Fencing Center of Chicago RYC & RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Saturday, April 20, 2024 at 2:00 PM

Energy Sport Club - Niles, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	DESERANNO Leander	-	-	-	-	2%	20%	79%
2	GE Felix Fei	-	-	-	1%	10%	37%	52%
3	FANG Haoyu	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
3	LATORRE Leonardo	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
5	TAN Charlie	-	-	1%	8%	35%	55%
6	ZHOU Justin	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	30%
7	CRONK Trevor	1%	16%	41%	32%	9%	1%
8	ZHAO Jason	1%	8%	26%	38%	23%	5%
9	GREULICH Nikolas	1%	6%	22%	37%	28%	7%
10	SYMMANK Callen	-	5%	22%	38%	28%	7%
11	LINEBERRY CADEN	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
12	KAGAN Noah	-	2%	12%	37%	41%	8%
13	XU Jason	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	1%
14	MORALES Tycho	3%	23%	40%	26%	7%	1%	-
15	ZHANG Hanson	1%	11%	31%	37%	18%	2%
16	ENCISO Simon	-	1%	6%	27%	45%	20%	2%
17	CHASE Crosby	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	8%
18	FOSTERVOLD Castiel	3%	22%	38%	27%	9%	1%	-
19	NG Gavin	3%	20%	40%	28%	8%	1%	-
20	KALINA Levi	1%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
21	THEKKEL Jonathan	3%	19%	40%	29%	7%	-
22	FLOOD Moe	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	23%	2%
23	PAYNE Lynas	-	4%	21%	41%	28%	5%
24	MCGRATH Milo	-	3%	18%	41%	32%	6%
25	ALVA Anmol	-	1%	9%	27%	38%	22%	3%
26	BILLIET Greyson	17%	40%	31%	10%	2%	-
27	MARTIN Wesley	1%	11%	34%	38%	15%	1%
28	HARDWICK Alex	4%	20%	36%	29%	10%	1%
29	HANLEY Jack	-	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	2%
30	LI Andy	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
31	HALLETTMANES Ezra	22%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
32	MCCOOL Henry	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
33	DENG Albert	17%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-	-
34	WILSON Jacob	-	6%	25%	39%	24%	5%	-
35	HYUN Francis	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-
36	HOLMES Elston	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-
37	SHAH Aadi	26%	45%	24%	5%	-	-
38	HILDEBRANDT Gerhard	6%	27%	38%	22%	5%	-
39	WANG Freyr	-	5%	22%	39%	27%	7%	-
40	RITTER Nathan D.	24%	45%	26%	6%	-	-
41	ZUIDEMA Harrison	36%	42%	18%	4%	-	-
42	STAMPS Jasper	3%	41%	41%	14%	2%	-
43	ALTENHOF Nathaniel	31%	44%	20%	4%	-	-	-
43	LUND Jonah	48%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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