Jeff Wolfe Long Island Challenge ROC

Div I-A Women's Saber

Sunday, April 21, 2024 at 9:00 AM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	DRAGON Rainer	-	-	-	1%	18%	80%
2	CHAVAN Arya	-	4%	22%	44%	29%	2%
3	LEE Sophia	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
3	MCSWEENEY Kylie	1%	8%	27%	38%	22%	4%
5	WANG Elysia	-	-	-	5%	31%	64%
6	MANKOVA Varvara	-	-	5%	23%	43%	28%
7	MERCHANT Aishwarya	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
8	LOURENCO Alexandra	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
9	BIRNSTILL Reese	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
10	MYAT Chloe	7%	27%	38%	23%	6%	-
11	MACKAY Katherine	2%	14%	33%	35%	14%	1%
11	BUTMAN Chloe Alexandra	3%	29%	43%	21%	4%	-
13	NEUMAN Ella	2%	17%	37%	31%	11%	1%
14	COLTER Aurora	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	22%
15	YEN Natalie	-	3%	19%	42%	32%	5%
16	KHOST Maeve	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-
17	NAYAK Esha	-	5%	26%	43%	24%	2%
18	MANI Francesca B.	2%	23%	43%	26%	5%	-
19	NAYAK Antara	2%	27%	44%	22%	4%	-
20	YOUNG Charlotte G.	-	1%	7%	26%	43%	23%
21	YOUNG Audrey	-	4%	21%	43%	29%	4%
22	LAGOON Miriam	21%	41%	29%	9%	1%	-
23	SHEN Emily	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
24	LIM Alexa J.	4%	19%	36%	30%	10%	1%
25	LOCONTO Sophia	6%	25%	38%	25%	7%	-
26	MAROSFOI Virag	23%	41%	27%	8%	1%	-
27	HARRISON Allie	73%	24%	3%	-	-	-
28	BAINS Nandini	3%	31%	43%	20%	3%	-
29	SIMMONS Kinley	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-
30	BARRY Mya	39%	42%	16%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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