Mission SYC

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, May 5, 2024 at 2:15 PM

Mission Fencing Center - Rocky Point, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KUGLER Luke	-	-	-	2%	16%	43%	39%
2	NORMILE Nicholas	-	-	-	4%	19%	42%	35%
3	TSE Maxwell	-	2%	12%	35%	39%	12%
3	LIU Adam	-	-	1%	6%	21%	41%	31%
5	TRAN Spencer	-	6%	27%	43%	22%	3%
6	BAJAJ Nakul	1%	6%	23%	39%	26%	6%
7	SUN Lucas	-	-	2%	11%	34%	40%	13%
8	DODIN Daniel M.	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	4%
9	XIA Dashan	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
10	AHMED Mohsen	-	-	2%	14%	37%	36%	10%
11	MIDYANY Evan	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
12	SOLARZ Arthur	1%	9%	28%	37%	21%	4%
13	KIM Henry	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
14	SONG Aidan	2%	14%	30%	32%	17%	4%	-
15	SINGLETON Aman	-	2%	10%	26%	36%	22%	4%
16	WANG-SONG Evan	2%	15%	32%	32%	16%	3%	-
17	KATS Brandon	29%	44%	22%	5%	< 1%	-
18	ZHAI Junqi	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	17%
19	KARIMOV Amir	-	2%	14%	35%	36%	12%
20	MIDYANY Ryan	-	1%	6%	26%	40%	23%	4%
21	CAFASSO Alexander	1%	10%	30%	36%	18%	4%	-
22	O'LONGAIGH Sunkhar	-	2%	9%	26%	36%	22%	5%
23	KIM Tae	-	1%	9%	29%	39%	19%	3%
24	SZCZAPA Lukas	-	1%	10%	34%	37%	16%	2%
25	YAMAGUCHI Yuzuki	-	2%	10%	27%	35%	21%	4%
26	ZHENG Jason	16%	43%	32%	8%	1%	-	-
27	LI Jade	3%	18%	37%	31%	11%	1%
28	LUO Alexander	3%	19%	38%	30%	10%	1%
29	KHERSONSKY Robert	18%	41%	31%	10%	1%	-
30	CHEN Edward	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
31	ARMSTRONG Payson	6%	24%	35%	24%	9%	1%	-
32	ROBINSON Garrett	6%	31%	39%	20%	4%	-	-
33	NG Nico	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
34	GIMBRERE Alexandre	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
35	FRIZZELL Kai	21%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-
36	YAO Ryan	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%	-
37	DANILOV Artur	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
38	GRIGORENKO Gleb E.	27%	44%	23%	5%	1%	-
39	YAO Aiden	7%	27%	38%	22%	6%	1%
40	FENG Xinmin	9%	35%	40%	14%	2%	-	-
41	POWELL Horatio	42%	41%	15%	2%	-	-	-
42	WU Matthew	12%	33%	34%	16%	4%	-	-
43	ZHANG Shuhao	34%	45%	19%	3%	-	-	-
44	WITHERELL Logan	11%	33%	36%	17%	3%	-
45	YAKHNIS Seth	20%	43%	28%	8%	1%	-
46	CHEN Daniel	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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