National Championships and July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Vet-50 Men's Foil

Thursday, July 4, 2024 at 11:00 AM

Greater Columbus Convention Center - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUAREZ Rafael A.	-	-	-	-	5%	34%	61%
2	WYSZYNSKI Marek B.	-	-	-	6%	57%	37%
3	FOELLMER Oliver K.	-	-	-	3%	44%	53%
3	SENIC Anatolie	-	-	-	3%	42%	55%
5	POPOKH Leo	-	-	2%	15%	43%	39%
6	CHO Michael	-	-	1%	11%	45%	43%
7	SIRICO Tommy P.	-	-	-	4%	24%	51%	20%
8	CHERNOMASHENTSEV Alan	-	-	-	4%	26%	54%	15%
9	VALENTINE Iain	-	1%	10%	33%	42%	12%	1%
10	GEARHART Andrew (Andy) R.	-	-	1%	14%	68%	16%
11	PIMOUTKINE Roustam R.	-	-	-	7%	55%	38%
12	KISSINGFORD John F.	-	1%	11%	35%	40%	13%
13	ANDERSON Nathan T.	-	-	-	-	6%	38%	56%
14	LOPEZ Reynaldo (REY)	-	-	5%	25%	48%	20%	2%
15	RUSANOV Oleg	1%	13%	43%	39%	4%	-
16	YANG David	16%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
17	KENT Dwain	1%	14%	39%	36%	9%	1%
18	KOEHN Ted	-	-	2%	16%	52%	30%
19	OLIVARES Frets G.	-	-	-	1%	22%	78%
20	KIM Ethan	21%	43%	28%	7%	1%	-
21	WAY Kashi M.	-	4%	36%	54%	6%	-
22	BERKE Daniel (Dan) L.	2%	17%	47%	32%	3%	-
23	POWERS Douglas A.	1%	11%	34%	40%	13%	1%	-
24	TOLENTINO SR. Francis	18%	44%	30%	7%	-	-	-
25	KRYLTSOV Greg	3%	25%	51%	20%	1%	-
26	HERNANDEZ Marc A.	4%	24%	42%	25%	4%	-
27	ORNELAS Polo	41%	45%	13%	1%	-	-
28	GERACI Paul A.	-	8%	56%	34%	2%	-
29	BORG Daniel	60%	35%	5%	-	-	-
30	MINOTT Nicolas D.	6%	28%	41%	21%	3%	-	-
31	WU Clarence C.	< 1%	3%	17%	42%	31%	7%
32	NEWELL Tim	27%	50%	21%	2%	-	-
33	TOWSTER Robert	3%	28%	42%	23%	5%	-	-
34	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	1%	15%	38%	35%	11%	1%	-
35	JOO Michael	13%	41%	35%	10%	1%	-
36	RITTER Nathan E.	-	6%	34%	53%	7%	-
37	SAUCEDO Fernando	24%	63%	12%	1%	-	-
38	GREENLEAF John	14%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-
39	JEFFCOAT Timothy	16%	52%	28%	4%	-	-
40	CALAY Robert J.	2%	18%	40%	31%	9%	1%	-
41	ALLAN Peter L.	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
41	ROUNTREE Andrew	66%	32%	2%	-	-	-
43	FELDMAN Louis	69%	27%	4%	-	-	-	-
44	OWENS Jonathan D.	29%	44%	23%	5%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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