USA Fencing International Regional Circuit Wuxi

Y-10 Men's Épée

Saturday, August 3, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Wuxi Taihu International Exhibition Center A4 Hall - None

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAO Junxi	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	14%
2	SHEN Lucas	-	4%	15%	30%	32%	16%	3%
3	XIAO Zixuan	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
3	XIAO Ziyu	-	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
5	ZHENG SAILON	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	7%
6	GAO wangyiyang	-	-	1%	26%	49%	24%
7	RUAN chengxin	1%	9%	23%	32%	24%	10%	2%
8	CUI yichen	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	3%
9	WANG WILL ZHEPING	-	-	4%	15%	32%	34%	14%
10	LIU Junbo	-	-	4%	29%	46%	21%
11	ZHANG yunxiang	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	10%	1%
12	YOU yicheng	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	8%	1%
13	ZANG alvin	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	5%	1%
14	JIN JETFAN	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
15	BAI Youcheng	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%	-
16	TIANYU Dai	6%	22%	33%	26%	11%	2%	-
17	DONG Michael	-	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
18	CHEN Aaron	-	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
19	LIU Xize	1%	12%	35%	36%	14%	2%
20	LIU YULIN	2%	16%	36%	33%	12%	2%
21	LU Jayden	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-
22	CHEN Daoming	1%	20%	42%	30%	7%	-
23	WANG HONGYU	-	5%	23%	37%	27%	7%	-
24	CHEN JEFFERY JUN YI	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%	-
25	DENG Domo	1%	10%	27%	34%	21%	6%	1%
26	FENGYU Leng	1%	36%	49%	13%	1%	-
27	REN JunYu	-	5%	24%	44%	25%	1%
28	CHIANG Ryan S.	2%	15%	33%	33%	15%	2%
29	ZHENG Le	14%	38%	34%	12%	2%	-
30	HE Kai	2%	15%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
31	WEI Henry	8%	29%	37%	21%	5%	-	-
32	YAN Stanley	12%	35%	35%	15%	3%	-	-
33	JIANG Wenzhi	8%	28%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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