USA Fencing International Regional Circuit Wuxi

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, August 4, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Wuxi Taihu International Exhibition Center A4 Hall - None

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ZOU Cenxuan	-	-	4%	20%	44%	32%
2	YANG Haoxuan	-	6%	28%	41%	21%	3%
3	ZHANG JIAMING	-	-	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%
3	LI Jinyuan	-	-	1%	7%	29%	46%	18%
5	TIAN Jiashen	-	-	-	1%	8%	37%	54%
6	DENG Levi	-	-	-	2%	23%	74%
7	CHEN zhuoyang	-	4%	16%	32%	32%	14%	2%
8	WU Bingzhuo	-	-	5%	20%	35%	30%	10%
9	LI Tin Shing	-	-	1%	7%	25%	43%	24%
10	LU Haoran	-	-	4%	21%	46%	25%	4%
11	WANG HAOYU	5%	31%	47%	16%	1%	-
12	JI YUXUAN	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
13	WANG Xiangdong	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	4%	-
14	YANG Tianyi	-	3%	14%	29%	32%	17%	4%
15	ZHU JIAMING	-	5%	28%	42%	22%	3%
16	WANG JIAZHE	-	3%	16%	37%	34%	10%
17	WU XianZu	-	3%	18%	41%	33%	5%
18	CAO Jiahua	-	2%	9%	24%	34%	24%	7%
19	ZHANG Jinghong	-	3%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
20	ZHAO Yuqiao	10%	45%	34%	10%	1%	-
21	WU Yuk Pak	-	1%	7%	31%	48%	13%
22	YAO ZIYUE	1%	8%	22%	32%	26%	11%	2%
23	MA Roger	1%	12%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-
24	LU Jacob	1%	13%	34%	35%	14%	2%	-
25	LYU Yuchen	1%	12%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
26	HE Yurui	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
27	CUI jiarui	-	-	8%	46%	41%	4%
28	WU Chi Kuan	6%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
29	MAO Siqi	7%	40%	39%	12%	1%	-
30	ZILIN Liu	-	2%	34%	44%	18%	2%
31	CUI Jiakang	-	1%	13%	39%	38%	10%
32	YAO ZICHAO	-	< 1%	4%	20%	39%	31%	5%
33	MAK Tin Ho	16%	47%	31%	6%	-	-
34	ZHAO ZHANYAN	-	2%	17%	43%	34%	4%
35	WANG Devin	69%	27%	3%	-	-	-
36	MAYO Matt Jacob	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	6%	1%
37	YU Shiyuan	7%	34%	40%	16%	2%	-	-
38	SUN Marco	55%	36%	8%	1%	-	-	-
38	GUO Derrick	-	< 1%	5%	23%	41%	26%	5%
40	TIAN CHENHE	27%	49%	20%	3%	-	-	-
41	KONG Brandon	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%	-
42	GUAN Yuxin	1%	11%	31%	37%	17%	3%	-
43	CAO Martin	44%	46%	10%	1%	-	-	-
44	LI Ray	69%	28%	3%	-	-	-
45	WU Nathan	50%	41%	9%	1%	-	-
46	WU Allen	17%	36%	30%	13%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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